2019 Autopsy Report: San Diego Padres

Busy day today as we also have our 4th Autopsy report for 2019 – earlier I recapped the Chicago Cubs

The 4th team eliminated, and 3rd in the National League, is the San Diego Padres. The Padres are probably the first report where maybe they had a bit of hope in making a push, albeit pretty dim. With OF Nash paired with Matuella and Broderick Wilson, there was at least some chance of a run.

Time of Death: Sunday September 1st, as Giants OF Cameron Maybin’s 2-run walk-off off of Padres CL Adys Portillo secured a win for the Giants, thus eliminating the Padres from postseason play.

Cause of Death (Primary): Power Outage. After 2 straight seasons where the Padres were in the NL West mix, budgetary concerns resulted in jettisoning Rymer Liriano, Giancarlo Stanton and SP Manuel Reyes. The remaining team just couldn’t get it done.

Secondary Issues: I’m not kidding about the power outage. The Padres have just 53 HR. 2nd fewest are the Cubs who have 67. 3rd fewest? The Marlins at 95, which is almost DOUBLE the Padres. There are 8 teams who have 2 players alone who have 54+ combined HR (and 3-4 more teams who have 2 who get to 50+). It’s not just the park either, Padres pitchers have given up 166 HR (75 at home). The park is a factor though, as only 2 Padre hitters have a 100+ OPS+ at home, 3rd best is Chase Greene with a .651 OPS at home. Ouch.

Left to Play For: The Padres will almost certainly have a top-5 pick, and their realistic range is in the 3rd-7th range. You’d think playing in the tight NL West there would be a chance at playing spoiler, but they’re done with the Giants and only 1 3-game set against the Dodgers remains. They do play the Rockies 6 times. With 9 against the 4th place DBacks and 4 each against the sub .400 Cubs and Brewers, they could avoid 100 losses (need to go 12-14).

2020 Outlook: Better than 2019, but as it stands, not .500 I don’t think. They’ve got 1 star bat, OF Ryan Nash (.301, 33 SB) and top-prospect Darby Jarrom is learning on the fly in the bigs (.168 Avg, hindered by a .216 BABIP). C O’Day is just 24 and should keep his gig, as well as defensive wizard SS Simmons. Really all other positions should be an open competition. 3rd-rated prospect OF Jeff Brooks should get a look. Top-100 prospect SP Bill Higgings looks ready to join Matuella, Wilson and Musgrove in the rotation.