In a 162-game season, it’s generally impossible to point to any one thing and say that made or break a team’s season. There are so many moments and data points across the timeline that it’s unfair to hold any one point up and say, “THIS IS THE ONE GUYS”.
If the Tampa Bay Rays miss the 2024 playoffs, though…we know the exact moment they did.
It’s now. Now is when it happened.
To be more clear and less clever, “now” means the current four-game skid the team is on. And, to be more fair and less provocative, even with the current four-game skid the team is on, the Rays still sit two games ahead of Seattle for the final wild card spot.
And, to be even more fair and even less provocative, it was said, in this space on August 15th, that the Rays were destined to struggle like this. The stretch of schedule they are on–last night’s 9-6 loss in Philly was the 11th of a 17-game stretch without an off-day–is quite difficult.
All of that is what makes the current four-game skid the team is on even more damning to the Rays’ chances of making the playoffs, and even more painful to a fanbase who seems to be receiving the sports version of edging.
Here’s a quick summary of the horror show that has been the last four days of the Rays season:
Friday, 9.6.24, at Baltimore: The Rays get five innings of two-hit, one-run ball by Jeffery LeBlanc. Alonso Martinez’ 24th homer of the year gives the Rays a 3-1 lead after seven. JT Ginn, who had allowed just three runs over his last 17 appearances (15 ⅓ IP) dating back to July 6, and not more than one run in any appearance, enters the game and gives up a single to Dave Tatum, then a two-run homer to Josh Jung, tying the game. Rookie All-Star closer Brian Chan comes in in the ninth, throws two balls to Julio Rodriguez…then serves up a walk-off homer.
Saturday, 9.7.24, at Baltimore: Thanks mainly to Bobby Witt’s 17th homer and four RBI, the Rays take a 5-4 lead into the seventh. Dan Hughes has battled through six innings, giving up eight hits and four runs. Manager Gabe Kapler stays with him into the seventh; Hughes promptly gives up a single, then throws a wild pitch, before getting an out. Josiah Gray inexplicably enters the game, promptly giving up a double to Luis Arraez to tie it. Gray stays in the game in the eighth, giving up a solo shot to Nolan Gorman. O’s win 6-5.
Sunday, 9.8.24, at Baltimore: Just not competitive; the bats don’t show up, and the O’s complete the sweep, 7-1. To add to it, Bryse Wilson was suspended for six games for hitting Dave Tatum and starting a bench-clearing brawl.
Monday, 9.9.24, at Philly: Rays give up three immediately…but then plate six in the second. Dane Grier settled down after the rocky first to pitch into the seventh, with the Rays leading 6-4. After a two-out walk to Carter Bins, Kapler pulls him for…Josiah Gray. Gray promptly gives up back-to-back doubles to KJ Costello and inner-circle MVP candidate Anthony Hale, tying the game. Chan enters the game in the ninth; after sandwiching a walk inside two outs, Chan hits Costello…then gives up a three-run walkoff to Hale. Phils win, 9-6.
The Rays could easily be 83-61. They could easily be five games up on the Mariners, two games up on the Angels, and nipping at both Toronto and Boston’s heels for the AL East. Instead…well, the Rays find themselves in the boat they have sunk in each of the last two seasons.
While it’s easy to say Chan and Gray failed to meet the moment in two of those losses, this ultimately falls to Gabe Kapler’s decision-making. Why is Kapler relying on rookies in these moments? Chan has been uneven since July 1st, with a WHIP of 1.50 in both July and August. Chan was fantastic for much of the season, but he is now 6-8 with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .315 BABIP.
Gray, meanwhile, is nearly the same: 9-4, 4.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .314 BABIP. He’s also served eleven homers in 54.1 innings.
Jon Roberts, arguably the most talented reliever in all of baseball, didn’t see those moments. He’s 4-0 with a 2.60 ERA, but he has a 0.93 WHIP. Hitters are batting .132 off of him this season, and he has a BABIP of .169. He is a weak-contact inducing machine.
Jeremy Benson, 8-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a .190 oAVG, didn’t see those moments.
For most managers, this would be a live-and-learn situation. However, in this scenario…this could get Kapler fired if the Rays fail to ride out their current advantage and make the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
It’s quite likely this is the last we see of Gray in a Rays uniform in 2024. The team is high on him, and he is talented. But he also missed all of last season due to injury, and he hasn’t pitched this many innings since 2021. The front office was reportedly considering sending him down when rosters expanded.
Instead, the team designed Jeffrey Starks for assignment, and kept Gray up. Now, it’s likely he goes down, and Kevin Clancy returns to the pen.
This is not the time of year to be making these decisions. But the team passed on several trade options to solidify the pen, and decide to ride in on what brought them to this point. And now, team management, both in the dugout and in the front office, are accountable for the result.
Again…this team isn’t dead yet. However, if the season ends with the Rays cleaning out lockers and doing exit interviews…you not only have the time of death here…
…you also have the autopsy report.