SEPTEMBER 20–A week ago today, it appeared that this build of Tampa Bay Rays defined themselves.
A week ago today, the Rays were stumbling back home after losing six of seven in Baltimore and Philly. Losing three of four in Philly is understanding; they’ve been the best team in the National League by far this year, and, heading into today, are tied for the league’s best record with Houston (96-57).
But the sweep in Baltimore was particularly damning. The Rays were 8-2 against the O’s heading into that series. Then they lost two games they should have won (this space detailed those games in our last piece), before getting crushed 7-1 in a Sunday game that was competitive for the wrong, though controversial, reasons.
Just a quick rant here: Bryse Wilson didn’t mean to hit Dave Tatum in the fifth inning of that game. Sure, it came after Tyson Detmer’s two-run homer, which came one pitch after back-to-back errors extended what was an efficient inning. But Wilson was up 1-2 on Tatum. The pitch itself was a changeup. Wilson getting run, and immediately suspended for six games, was a total lack of reading of the room by league admin. /rant
A week ago today, the Rays found themselves at 82-66, a half-game back of the Angels for the second Wild Card slot…but also just a game ahead of the surging Mariners for that final Wild Card slot. (It’s actually something we foretold in this August 15th piece.)
This space needs to back up a bit. Saying “this build of the Rays defined themselves” seems a little dramatic, doesn’t it? This is a very young team, one whose core was still being built heading into this season. There was a lot more written into this space (it’ll be in the Extended Cut at the end of the piece), but the gist is this: This roster is comprised of guys in their first or second full-season in their roles, or of some veterans who have had to transition to Tampa’s garbage ballpark.
If one wishes to place a definition on this build of the Rays, it’s because this season was considered to be the year this franchise fully enters the fray as a major contender. The youngsters would have been seasoned enough at this point, and the Rays had solid enough supplemental pieces around that young talent, that they would have supplanted Toronto as the team to battle with Baltimore atop the AL East.
Of course, things have a way of never going to plan. The Red Sox, a talented-but-underperforming squad the last two years, suddenly put it together AND overperformed; they’re +8 on Pythagorean Record (89-64 actual record, 81-72 PytWL). Toronto, seemingly capped out heading into this season, managed to send Tim Lincecum’s carcass to Chicago, resuscitating Mark Appel’s career (8-2, 1.89 ERA, 217 ERA+) in the process (yes, he was good in Pittsburgh this year, but come on). Baltimore, meanwhile, was cannibalized by their struggling pitching staff.
Meanwhile, the Rays, one of the best teams in the league from May through July, struggled in August (13-14). And, one week ago today, they were 4-7 in September.
In the week since one week ago today, the team swept Cleveland and their Great What-Ifs in Tampa Lore on the road. They got the day off they hadn’t had since August 29th, and returned home to face the Red Sox.
The Rays, staring down their own 2024 mortality, promptly took the first two from the Sox, before dropping last night’s game, 7-6. Make no mistake: That loss is costly. The Sox could be 87-66, two back of Toronto, and one back of Boston, in the AL East. Instead, they’re three back from both.
With regards to the Wild Card, they could have gotten a bit of breathing room from the Los Angeles Angels, who are finding themselves in unfamiliar territory at this stage of the year. As it is, they are one game ahead of LA, two ahead of Seattle.
So, the Rays are set up. However, and this is the other reason why saying this stretch would define this build is somewhat reasonable and defensible…this team has been set up in each of the past two seasons. They were in the race for both the AL East and the Wild Card in 2022, and missed out on both. They made a run late at the Wild Card last year, only to falter in the final two weeks of the season.
Now, as the 2024 MLBPro season begins the weekend before the final week…the Rays find themselves in familiar territory.
They also find themselves perhaps in control of their own fate here, as Toronto comes to town. The teams are 5-5 against each other this season. Interestingly enough, the Rays are 1-3 against Toronto at home, 4-2 against them in Canada. Those four games were the first four of the season; they haven’t faced each other since July 23-25, when the Rays took two of three in Toronto.
Needless to say, these are very different teams than when they last met.
This series will pit the team with the best home record in the AL (52-24) against thh team with the best away record in the league (45-33). It will also pit both team’s 1-2 starters against one another:
Friday: Dane Grier (1-1, 20.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 24 K, 0.90 ERA vs TOR in ‘24) vs Mark Appel (1st outing vs TB in ‘24)
Saturday: Tyson Oswalt (0-1, 9.1 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 8 K) vs Shawn Stephens (0-1, 2.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER)
This is Tampa’s best shot at solidifying their 2024 playoff chances. The Angels are in Houston, having already lost the opener. The Red Sox are home to Minnesota, before going to Toronto on Monday.
The Mariners, meanwhile, are at Texas, before going to Houston on Monday. So, it’s all right there for this team.
The pressure on the Rays is real. They own the league’s worst away record of any contender, at 32-43. They’re on the road all next week, traveling to Detroit, for finishing in Boston, where both teams may have all to play for.
And that’s what it is for Tampa; it’s all there to play for. Maybe the third time’s the charm. This may be their best opportunity of the three that they have had in this run. And, maybe for the first time since this current administration has taken over control of the franchise, the offense is the major reason why. The Rays lead the AL in Team OPS in September, at .813. The next-best is Baltimore’s .778.
Boston, by comparison, is at .777. Toronto’s OPS is .699.
Tampa is the only team to score 100 runs so far in the month; they’ve done it with power; 35 doubles (2nd in AL), 4 triples (T-1st), and 26 HR (3rd). They’re doing it with patience, as they have 67 walks, 2nd in the AL. (They’ve done it with no IBB, too.)
They’re also doing it with speed, as they have all season; they’re 20/22 in steals, tied for second…but first in efficiency.
This is key, because their pitching staff has been erratic, ranking among the worst in ERA (4.34), BABIP (.313), and OPS (.756). They face a Toronto staff that ranks towards the top in all of those categories, and has a pure stopper in Appel.
So, there’s pressure. It’s pressure the Rays wilted under each of the last two seasons. And it’s all there for them to wilt again in 2024.
All of this is written to say this: There’s a lot riding on these next nine games for Tampa…not just for this season, but for the history books. If they get to the postseason for the first time since 2019, it may very well be because of a flipped script.
If they are to get to the next step, though…this is the step they need to take.
Otherwise, who knows who the hell will be on this roster next year, and how long it takes for that roster to get to this point.
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EXTENDED CUT
Case in point:
– 2B Garrett DeChambeau, who has become the key contributor and low-key star the Rays hoped he would be when they acquired him from Kansas City last year, is only in his first full season; injuries limited him to just 199 PA a year ago, and most of those were bad, as is evidenced by his .185/.289/.226 line (48 OPS+). The Rays keeping faith in him has paid off; he’s hitting .296/.375/.467, 16 HR, 74 RBI (141 OPS+) in 526 PA this season.
– C Drew Romo, acquired at the trade deadline last year, and thrown into the fire down the stretch when Devin Mesoraco got injured, is in his first full season. He could be the best defensive catcher in the league, and is already the leader in a clubhouse full of them. His bat was considered to be the piece that would hold him back. While his numbers (.251/.302/.364, 91 7 HR, 58 RBI, 91 OPS+) aren’t stellar, the Rays are over-the-moon with that. Having arguably the best backup in the league in William Contreras (.303/.390/.385, 124 OPS+) also helps.
– Bobby Witt Jr., the team’s brightest young star, is only in his second MLB season. On its surface, he’s had a sophomore slump…though not as much as one would think.
Witt 2023: .270/.335/.446 (.781), 23 HR, 84 RBI, 27/38 SB, 117 OPS+, 4.4 WAR (619 PA)
Witt 2024: .246/.314/.443 (.758), 18 HR, 65 RBI, 24/27 SB, 115 OPS+, 3.3 WAR (478 PA)
One also has to remember that, after a rough April that all of the Rays shared, Witt was hitting .308/.373/.446 (135 OPS+) in May when he suffered a hamstring strain that cost him all of June. He struggled upon returning in July (99 OPS+), but posted a 144 OPS+ in August, and has a 122 so far in September.
– 2B Taylor Davis was the Rays’ best hitter (.333/.371/.427) when he went down on May 28; he would not return until August 16.
– CF Randy Maley, despite struggling mightily in the second half, still has a 96 OPS+. He’s also 33/37 on stolen base attempts. Maley has been a top-shelf defender, good enough that the Rays signed him to an extension.
(For what it’s worth, we agree with the extension. The Rays prioritize defense, especially up-the-middle. Gambling on finding a more cost-conscious option did not appeal to the Rays. Even if he’s the fourth outfielder by 2027, the Rays feel they’ll get enough value that they’d rather take the known quantity over getting priced out in free agency.)
– Yes, 3B Alonso Martinez has struggled tremendously. The transition to Tampa is difficult for anyone. Transitioning from Colorado, as Martinez did, is like sliding across alternate universes. That said, the reigning NL MVP and Triple Crown winner, who hit .198/.247/.330 and .176/.216/.324 (53 OPS+, -0.4 WAR) in July and August, is hitting .317/.380/.651 in September, with six homers and 13 RBI. His 190 OPS+ is MVP-like, at a time when a MVP is needed. His best month to date is his 118 OPS+ in May.
– RF Jeremy Sullivan got hit by Tampa trade shrapnel; the person he was traded for, Nick Plummer, became an All-Star. Because of course he did. Sullivan is actually hitting nearly exactly what he did last year:
2023: .238/.308/.424, 23 HR, 82 RBI (104 OPS+, 2.0 WAR)
2024: .235/.305/.436, 27 HR, 77 RBI (110 OPS+, 0.8 WAR)
Sullivan is also stepping up at this stage, hitting .292/.365/.585, with five homers and 13 RBI, in September. He’s had a very roller-coastery season (OPS+ by month, April-September: 50, 173, 86, 150, 62, 165)…but he’s been important for the team in this stretch.
This is all way-too-much information.