Hopefully by now, you have heard about former Tampa Bay Rays’ 3B Alonso Martinez.
Martinez, the 2023 Triple Crown winner and NL MVP, was acquired for five players nearly one year ago (12.15.23), the centerpiece of which was 2022 1st rounder, OF Ben Shtolzberg. He is the 27th-ranked prospect in the league, for the record.
We’ll come back to that later.
Martinez rebuilt his value enough in September–thanks to a .286/.348/.592, 9-22 September, and a 174 OPS+ in the postseason–to opt out of the final year of his contract, and enter free agency.
This…leaves the Rays in quite a bind.
Well, let’s rephrase: This, coupled with owner Stuart Sternberg’s unwillingness to go all-in on the club, leaves the Rays in quite a bind.
We’ll come back to that later.
The 30-year-old Martinez is betting on himself, and that his overall 2024, in which he hit .233/.286/.423, with 30 homers and 86 RBI (culminating in a 101 OPS+ and 2.4 WAR, down from 192 and 9.9 in 2023), can be overlooked in favor of that resurgent September…and that he had to ply his trade in Tampa, the worst offensive park in baseball. Reports around the league indicate he is seeking something in the neighborhood of an 8-year deal in the neighborhood of $245 million.
This, the Rays cannot afford.
So, why didn’t the Rays try to work out an extension during the season? Good question, faithful reader! The answer: He didn’t let them. General Jack Dawkins put it bluntly:
“I approached him and his team three times; once when we acquired him, once in Spring Training, and once in August. All three times, I was told he would not talk deal until he was in the final year of his contract…which, technically speaking, was next year.”
It was pretty clear that this was a way for Martinez to work his way out of Tampa; while he reportedly likes the organization–he is open to a new contract, but on his terms, obviously–he hates the ballpark.
That ballpark, and the Rays’ lack of funds, may have put the 2025 version of Rays into chaos mode…the results of which could play out in this team detonating, and rebuilding altogether.
That brings us to Sternberg.
The Rays have managed to stay relevant and achieve three consecutive winning seasons that saw meaningful baseball played into the end of September. In 2024, the Rays came within a game of reaching the ALCS. They’ve managed to do that with a payroll that has been significantly below average; the Rays, today, have a payroll of $107.9m, which ranks 22nd in the league.
That’s slightly down from last year’s payroll of $108.2m.
They team significantly increased their budget last year over 2023, from $144m to $158m. The team made a profit once again, raking in $16.98m…down from the $24.86m the team made in 2023, but still, a reasonable chunk of change.
For a team who reached the playoffs, and has been on the rise for years…it would appear that 2025 was the all-in season.
Sternberg, however, decided to derail that era of good feelings. He did that in two ways:
1) He increased 2025’s budget by just $4m, to $162m.
2) He took $23.7m in cash out of the team’s coffers. This is in addition to the $43m he took out of the team in 2023.
This is in addition to the team receiving half of what they did in 2023 with regards to revenue sharing; they received $13m in 2023, and just $6.7m in 2024.
For a team who ranked 18th in attendance (2.3m), and 15th in gate revenue ($38m), despite being a consistently winning club for the last three years, a team brimming with young stars…this was a tremendous blow to morale in the front office.
The Rays have one of the worst media contracts in the league, at 27th in the league. Despite having Bobby Witt Jr, Elliott Jenkins, Garrett DeChambeau, and a host of other young, marketable players, the team ranks 22nd in merchandising.
The result is that the Rays were 19th in total revenue, and 23rd in total expenses. Out of winning teams in 2024, only the Marlins (28th) were lower.
To sum up: Stuart Sternberg has screwed the Tampa Bay Rays with his greed. That tight-fisted greed had created a cycle the front-office had hoped would lessen heading into this offseason; however, it may sink them completely.
The cycle in question is simply this: When Dawkins took over the Rays, they were flush with minor league talent. They had very little talent at the top, but they were the top farm system in the league. In order to supplement the young talent ascending to the bigs, Dawkins has had to trade out of that farm system, because Sternberg has repeatedly not given Dawkins money to spend on free agents.
Now, you can debate decisions Dawkins has made–and not made–all you want. You can point to his decision to not go through with trades for Luke Musgrave, who thrived in Cleveland last year. You can point to his decision to hold onto Bryse Wilson and Corbin Carroll, declining to bring Evan Waxman back to Tampa (along with JR Justice) as a result. (And yes, we’ve talked about Waxman before, and how he didn’t exactly fit Tampa’s plan when he was dealt. He was still traded, along with Grayson Rodriguez, in a buy-high move for Cade Cahill.)
The point is, Dawkins made those moves because Sternberg forced his hand. The Rays wouldn’t have a 265-221 mark over the three years Dawkins has been in charge, along with that playoff run this past season.
Those 265 wins, for the record, are fifth in the AL over that time. Only the Angels, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Twins have more.
The Rays under Dawkins have pumped their funds into scouting and development, in an attempt to build depth in their farm system, while they trade the top prospects. They spent $33.2m in those departments last year.
Unfortunately, due to Sternberg’s controlling ways, this has forced a decision in the front office. They had $16.2m available for free agents at the start of this offseason. Dawkins has already slashed the scouting budget by $5m, giving the Rays $21m.
The Rays could gain another $8.725m by moving both their scouting and development budgets to $10m apiece. That would give them roughly $30m. That puts them in a precarious situation, as it pertains to trying to upgrade this team to stay in contention with Toronto, Boston, and Baltimore. With potential situations at first, second, and in the bullpen…having a rather sizable hole at third throws quite a wrench into things.
The Rays could slide Bobby Witt over to third, Garrett DeChambeau to short, and go with a tandem of Andres Gimenez and Taylor Davis at second. Davis was the best hitter in the lineup to start last year, before a bone bruise on May 28 cost him a month, and a strained ACL on June 29 cost him six weeks. After struggling through August, Davis hit .308/.333/.423 (116 OPS+) in September, giving Tampa confidence he can be a solid bat.
Gimenez, acquired from Pittsburgh along with JT Ginn, filled in admirably, batting .277/.348/.345. He’s also become a leader in the clubhouse already.
There are issues with either choice, though: Davis’ defense leaves a lot to be desired. He may be better as a DH, which is how he was utilized down the stretch. Tampa prefers to play through its defense in its garbage ballpark, so installing Davis at second creates some issues.
Gimenez, meanwhile, is best served as a utility player. Simple as that.
When you add that Witt and DeChambeau are best served in the spots they are–and that DeChambeau projects to merely an average shortstop, but potentially elite at second–well, you see the issue.
Daniel McCormick, meanwhile, has not hit well in Tampa. His defense and baserunning (51/69 SB) have made him a WAR-positive player. He’s also entering the last year of his contract, and while he has the ability to play the outfield (and possibly do it well), Tampa would like to upgrade at this spot.
The bullpen COULD be elite. However, everyone saw the issues with its lack of experience in the playoffs. (Losing their two best relievers heading into them didn’t help things, either.) Having a more experienced arm would benefit the team. That said, they reportedly kicked the tires on Camilo Doval…to the point that there were internal discussions about making an offer competitive with the Yankees. That never materialized, though, and probably would not have, regardless. For that cost, the Rays should be allocating money towards their infield.
Dawkins has had to build this team through trades, primarily; unfortunately, he may be down to just a couple of chips: Corbin Carroll, Dan Hughes, Brian Chan, or recent international signing, megaprospect Jackson Chourio. Dawkins has been consistently resistant towards moving any of the first three, to the point that it may have hurt the franchise in the short-term.
Regarding Chourio, Dawkins reportedly is adamant against dealing him…but if the right player were able to be obtained–Oakland’s Brandon Gill, for example–Chourio could be on the table.
(Chourio can’t be on the table at all until July 1st; this works to Dawkins’ benefit…and probably Rays’ fans as well.)
The fact that there are no realistic options in free agency–maybe Raul Aguilera, if his demands come down–means Dawkins is probably forced to either stand pat, or deal from a deck he wants to stay intact.
Or…he shifts the Rays’ finances around, goes against how the Rays have operated to this point, and shells out to keep Martinez…a player who did not earn such an effort until the end o the season.
While Dawkins is not blameless here, the Rays would not be in this situation if not for Sternberg’s miserly ways. And if the Rays fail to continue to play meaningful baseball in October, let alone advance to or win the World Series, Stuart Sternberg will be the one to blame.