As the ink dried from the Tampa Bay Rays most recent signing of the offseason—okay, their only signing of the offseason–owner Stuart Sternberg did something unfathomable.
The Rays, having to pivot after their bid to keep 3B Alonso Martinez came in just as he agreed to sign with Oakland, did so by bringing in infielder Raul Aguilera. Truth be told, this isn’t a fantastic pivot; while Aguilera checks boxes of being a fantastic baserunner (43/46 SB over the last three seasons), being an above-average defender at first and second base, and being a clubhouse leader, he is a slight hitter and, generally, replacement-level overall. His contract, 4/25 with an opt-out after two years, was a bloated necessity. The Rays needed someone who could allow them to slide Garrett DeChambeau to short and Bobby Witt to third, if they decide to go that route. Aguilera, in theory, will allow them that. But he definitely won’t give the team any power; they’ll have to rely on OF Jeremy Sullivan primarily for that, or hope that Witt, DeChambeau, and Corbin Carroll can grow into their immense power potential.
But, all-in-all, it could be worse. Maybe not much worse, but it could, in fact, be worse.
Actually…here comes worse. It’s what Sternberg did the day the team signed Aguilera.
Sternberg….added money to the team budget and payroll. To the tune of $8m, to be exact.
Okay, I get it. You’re aghast at this criticism. In the last piece, you will likely point out, I had a go at Sternberg for being cheap and tight-fisted, saying it cost them Martinez. You’re right; guilty as charged. So why am I criticizing Sternberg for doing the thing I said he needed to do, if the Rays are going to progress in their World Series ambitions?
I’ll give you two reasons: timing and optics.
Let’s get the obvious out there before moving further: Adjusting the budget, especially to add funds, is relatively common, especially in January. Such is the case here; the Rays realized they could add money to the budget, so they did. That’s a good thing. Except….
….why didn’t Sternberg do this in the first place? Surely, they have projections. And, while I’d rather not tell anyone how to spend their money, Sternberg took a chunk out of their possible budget ($23 million, to be exact) before they could even budget.
And now, he wants to be lauded for putting $8m back into the budget? Great job, Stuart; it only cost you Martinez, any reasonable chance at winning the AL East in 2025 (and maybe ever), and whatever little trust the fan base had that you had their best interests in mind.
And that’s the other part: The optics of this whole thing. Is Sternberg assuming nobody is paying attention, that everyone has moved onto the Bucs? Sure, the casual fan may not notice, but if Sternberg hasn’t noticed, the casual fan doesn’t really come out to the ballpark too often. Perhaps they’re casual fans because Sternberg pulls stuff like this all the time, and chooses profits over pennants. To me, that seems like a reasonable assertion to make.
The Tampa Bay Rays will never win a title while Stuart Sternberg is owner, because he will never put the ballclub over himself, even when the window is wide open, like it was back in November. Sternberg took one look at that window, and another at his checking account. It’s clear he felt it was too chilly, so he shut the window.
One pundit recently said that the Rays will finish last in the AL East. That’s a bold statement to make, one too bold for me. But the biggest issue for the Rays is finding consistent hitting for their garbage ballpark, and finding someone who can protect Witt and DeChambeau in that lineup, so they can continue to try and reach their potential.
That guy has walked out the door, replaced with someone who looks an awful lot like Gimenez. The owner decided to pay himself.
I hope the young guys Jack Dawkins has accumulated to get to where they are remember that when they come up for free agency. And they will, in fact, hit free agency. Dawkins won’t be able to afford even one of them, let alone multiple second contracts.
So, the cycle continues. When will the Rays begin trading off parts and rebuilding their farm system, so they can make another run at the ALDS? That’s a question that requires thought now, isn’t it? Let’s say the Rays enter July in fourth place, having been eclipsed by an Oriole team that finally puts its pitching together. The Rays have Jackson Chourio, their prized international signing, who could possibly make a contribution as early as July.
Dawkins may be forced with either trading Chourio…or trading the pieces he’s put in place already. Who knows if Dawkins will even get that opportunity?
Of course, this is all for naught if the kids grow up quickly. That’s not out of the realm of possibility. I suppose it’s possible…unlikely, but possible…that the departure of Martinez has taken the weight of expectations off of this young core. That’s doubtful; again, the casual fan may look at the results of last year and expect more. But it’s possible that, just perhaps, the young studs can play free and loose.
That’s probably just a dream, though.
Knowing Dawkins, and even more so, the current market, I would expect him to go get a pitcher. It’s his safe space, after all. But the logic, and the gaping hole at the back-end of the rotation, is there. That said, their trade chips are light; they’re no longer trading from a strength to shore up a weakness. Wherever they plug a hole, another leak is likely to spring.
These are your 2025 Rays, led by a profit. Unfortunately, it’s time to reap the rewards.