The date is May 9, 2025.
The Tampa Bay Rays are 25-12, which is currently good for a four-game lead in the AL East. They held the league’s best record through April. They were the last team in MLBPro to lose a tenth game.
The date is May 9, 2025.
It is time to panic in Tampa.
Oh, you may say, come the hell on. They’re off to the best start in years, maybe since 2014. They still have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. They keep the ball in the park and play great defense. They have a well-constructed, complimentary roster, one built on GM Jack Dawkins’ ideals of pitching, speed, defense, and contact. To that last point, they’re last in the league in strikeouts, and now lead the league in steals (though they’re baserunning metric has fallen from a league-best to seventh…this will happen when you press and try to force things to happen, as perhaps they did in this most recent series).
So, why the hell is it time to panic? Sure, getting swept at home by the Phillies isn’t ideal. But it’s the Phillies. They’re the defending world champs, and a historically dominant one at that. They came into Tampa the hottest team in baseball, winners of eight straight (now eleven, of course). There’s no shame in losing this series to a team like Philadelphia.
Except…it’s the way in which the Phillies won that should give anyone pause about the eventual legacy of the 2025 Tampa Bay Rays.
They didn’t just come into The Trash Bag and win three games. They destroyed a long-held myth, one that insulated the Rays from as much criticism as perhaps they deserve.
The Trash Bag (okay, Tropicana Field, for those who clutch their pearls about this monstrosity of a public arena) is generally known as the most unpleasant ballpark in the league for hitters. And, by in large, that is true. The ballpark factors attached to this park are obscene: Where 1.000 is average for a ballpark, hitting at The Trash Bag comes in at a .953 clip, and .940 for lefties.
Where 1.000 is average for a ballpark, hitting homers at The Trash Bag is rated at a .944. It’s .860 for lefties. It is one reason why the Rays targeted Brandon Gill so much; he’s a switch-hitter, so he’s still able to help balance out a lineup and keep opposing managers from targeting a right-heavy lineup. (Drew Romo and Raul Aguilera are also switch-hitters.)
Here is how the Phillies hit at The Trash Bag:
RD: PHI 18-9 TB
.294 AVG (33/112), .536 SLG, 6 2B, 7 RBI
Runners Left In Scoring Position + 2 : 9
And the Rays:
.236 (25/106), .358 SLG, 3 2B, 4 HR
Runners Left in Scoring Position:
Now, the Rays tried to make the most of their singles, as evidenced by their nine steals, against zero times caught. (The Phils, by comparison, had just one steal). But here’s the stat that damns the Rays offense, and dooms them to residency on a tier outside of Contendership:
Runners Left in Scoring Position + 2 Outs:
Phillies: 9
Rays: 15
The Rays simply cannot convert when it matters. The Rays are 13th in the AL in RBI (158); that’s because two teams–Cleveland and Texas–are outlier bad (115 & 114, respectively). They’re now 13th in runs scored (164), extra-base hits (99) and slugging percentage (.388). Even though they put the ball in play more than any other team, they’re only middle of the pack, they’re tenth in hits with 317…just ahead of the Nomad Athletics and Chicago White Sox.
Some of it can be attributed to The Trash Bag. But, as the Phillies just demonstrated, that attribution may be way overstated. You could point and say the Phils have a rightloaded lineup. That’s true. But, while Anthony Hale was quiet in the first two games of the series, he went off in yesterday’s 9-5 win (3-5, 2B, HR, 3RBI, 3R).
The Rays manufacture offense and runs. This seems to be more as a necessity than a weapon, though. And with the talent they have in their lineup, and where those players are in their career development, this should no longer be excusable.
The team’s best hitter, to date, has been Royce Lewis (.973 OPS, 176 OPS+). He’s played in just 15 games due to injury, and has a .439 BABIP. The likelihood he’s going to continue at this pace is highly unlikely.
After that, you have Garrett DeChambeau (.832/138/.363) and Drew Romo (.825/136/.369). DeChambeau has more of a track record, though there are encouraging signs that Romo’s production may be more than a fast start.
The issue with the lineup, and this would be the case with any team, is the heart of the lineup. Bobby Witt enters Friday at .721/105/.248. One would think that his BABIP has to improve at some point…but his strikeouts (21% K) have to come down too.
Jeremy Sullivan, meanwhile, sits at .670/90/.184. One would like to think he’s a victim of BABIP as well, but he has looked bad at times, and appears to be playing his way out of Tampa. Remember, he’s on essentially a one-year team; the team has an option for 2026.
Then you get to Brandon Gill. Jack Dawkins’ white whale. Gill’s worse than any of them, coming into Friday with a .649/85/.240. He looks a mess at the plate; he’s walking at an 8.6% rate, striking out at a 22.8% rate, and simply isn’t hitting. He is, essentially, Alonso Martinez from last year. There’s still a lot of optimism the 25-year-old will get going, though one has to remember he hit .249/.336/.475 a year ago. That SLG does a lot of heavy lifting to that 126 OPS+.
This is a case of Jack Dawkins betting on an immensely talented, but unpolished, player. And he’s plopped into a lineup full of immensely talented, but unpolished, players.
There are two points of contention here to make:
1) Manager Gabe Kapler’s juggling of lineups has to stop. There’s enough info to pull out of this that DeChambeau should hit second every day, and Gill should not be batting third. Witt should be the everyday #3 hitter. And Sullivan should be batting fifth. Rumor has it this is where the team is going.
(Sidebar: There is some question as to what to do with Elliott Jenkins and Corbin Carroll. Since returning from the IL, Carroll has been hitting quite well atop the lineup. He’s still abysmal against righties, which is interesting because he’s a left-handed bat. But while Jenkins is proven commodity atop the lineup–he won a batting championship and led the league in steals while batting lineup–there is reason to allow Carroll to continue to hit leadoff. Jenkins, currently batting seventh in those situations, has been hitting well there. But it’s something to watch.)
2) Pressure is mounting on Hitting Coach Barry Bonds, who simply isn’t getting results. Rumor has it that the team had reached out to a couple of free agent coaches, but were rebuffed. There is some hesitation in the front office about making a move in the middle of a season, especially when Bonds has solid relationships with virtually everyone on the roster. The players love him. But if they don’t start producing more consistently, chances are the Rays will simply let his contract run out (it is up at the end of this season).
All this over one stumbling block in a six-week-old season? The sky is really falling in Tampa? Look, things aren’t that bad. The Rays still have one of the best records in baseball, and that fast start allows for a sweep at home to the defending champs. But the Phillies showed the Rays where they want to be, but also how far they have to go to get there. While the rest of the May schedule does look reasonably favorable, it is tricky. The Brewers, in town this weekend, are playing better. The team then goes to Toronto and Miami; neither are playing great, but this Rays core has a tough time beating this Blue Jays core, and while the Marlins have been bad so far, they weren’t good last year, and they split a series in Miami.
The team also gets the resurgent Astros six times–three home next week, and three on the road at the end of the month–as well as the Twins, who aren’t playing great at the moment, but still have the kind of talent to give the Rays issues.
The fast start, and all the goodwill that came with it, masked some fundamental issues this team has…ones that will absolutely prevent them from being a true World Series contender. The Phillies ripped off that band-aid for the MLBPro world to see. And that’s fine. It was bound to come off at some point.
If the Rays don’t begin finding a solution to their offensive woes, though, that early-season goodwill will be gone by June. So will the attendance numbers; in a ballpark as small as The Trash Bag, that will catch owner Stuart Sternberg’s attention. Dawkins has fewer chips to push in to make a move in the trade market–prized outfielder Jackson Chourio is the main piece available–so the solution may have to come internally.
You know, as in…play better, and play better more often.
It is May 9, 2025.
You just read an old columnist tell a 25-12 team to play better.
That’s what the World of Expectations–where the Tampa Bay Rays now reside–will do to someone.
(So will a habitually underperforming offense.)