Tampa Decision Paralysis Impacts 2024 Season

What if you were told that the Tampa Bay Rays’ 2024 lineup looked like this:

What if you were told that the Rays’ rotation would have Carson Kelly, Nate Pearson, and/or James Kaprielian at the back end of it, rather than having to sit through the Bryse Wilson experience?

The 2024 Rays could look a lot different. Some say they should look a lot different. However, the indecisions these Rays have made likely have cost them the 2024 season. It may very well have cost them any chance at a meaningful future, as well.

Let’s take a look at the Rays That Never Will Be.

Non-Trade #1: 1B/OF Luke Musgrave from Oakland for RP Jeremy Benson or Josiah Gray

What The Rays Sought: Impact, Controllable Bat

The Rays sat on this for a while, as it was brought up early in the offseason…perhaps as early as last November. The A’s had an interest in reuniting with Benson. They have long had an interest in Gray, even with his injury last season. They saw a roster surplus at first base, and saw an avenue to restock their bullpen, given Victor Mejia’s inevitable departure after the season. (Note: Mejia, who the Rays also sought, was traded to Cincinnati.)

Why wasn’t this done? Musgrave was coming off a horrific 2023 season (.222/.259/.373), his first full run in the league. He had a league-low -1.6 WAR, to go along with a 75 OPS+. Additionally, the Rays were looking for someone who could play first base; Musgrave is a first baseman in name only; he’s more of an outfielder, which the Rays were set with at the time. Musgrave was seen by Tampa administration exclusively as a DH. The Rays were much more focused on fellow Athletic Brandon Gill, who they were not able to acquire…either during the offseason, nor at the trade deadline.

To that end, the Rays’ reportedly offered to take on Stephen Strasburg’s contract in an attempt to pry Gill. They were obviously unsuccessful.

What happened? Musgrave was traded to Cleveland to pitching prospect Mick Abel, who has struggled (1-8, 5.85, 69 ERA+) in his first ten MLBPro starts. Musgrave, meanwhile, took the league by storm in his third season…something that, if you looked past his 2023 numbers, one could have seen coming. He’s hit everywhere as a professional, including a .274/.320/.490 line (.810 OPS/118 OPS+) in 225 PA in Oakland in 2022. He was hitting .308/.352/.534, with 7 HR and 17 RBI after April, and at one point, was leading the league in hitting. He’s hitting .300/.349/.489 (.837) with a 135 wRC+, 20 HR, 48 RBI, and a league-leading 72 runs scored. He also has 18 steals in 23 attempts. All of this has led to a 3.10 WAR season to this point, and an All-Star nod for Musgrave.

Granted, these numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt, due to Tampa’s tepid home ballpark. Nobody, except for Elliott Jenkins, has adapted to Tropicana Field well. It has been a severe source of frustration for Tampa administration, and a major reason why many of these possible deals went up in smoke.

Non-Trade #2: DH/OF JR Justice and 1B/3B Evan Waxman from Cleveland, for OF Corbin Carroll, SP Bryse Wilson, and 3B Oneil Cruz

According to front office insiders, this trade was the closest to actually happening. The Rays tried to get Justice from Atlanta; however, inconsistent conversations with former Braves (and current Pirates) administration caused any deal to fall out. It should be noted here that the Rays also chased Mallard Thomas, Bo Bichette, and Nick Madrigal for two seasons…seemingly acquiring Thomas at one point, only to have it fall through because conversations with Braves’ administration went radio silent, and talks failed to adequately restart.

Justice was part of the trade that brought Rod Swift to Atlanta. (So was Mick Abel, ironically enough.) Justice hit well in his first run with the Guardians (.248/.336/430, 15 HR/55 RBI, 114 OPS+, 1.5 WAR). However, when the Rays inquired during the offseason to the new Guardians’ administration, he was available. The Guardians wanted pitching.

Waxman, meanwhile, was a highly-touted Rays prospect who was part of the infamous Cade Cahill deal. If you want evidence of what appears to be an ongoing Rays curse of trades, look no further than that one.

To Tampa: OF Cade Cahill, 2B Kunitaro Suzuki

To Cleveland: 1B/3B Evan Waxman, SP Grayson Rodriguez, CF Alek Thomas, 2B Nick Gonzales

This is where we need to remind anyone reading that the Rays administration is the same that traded the Greatest Hitter of This Generation, 1B/DH Gary Copeland, to Minnesota for Felicio Roxa (yes, and others…but for sake of jokes, Roxa).

Truth be told: The Cahill deal is worse. It will just get worse. The Copeland deal is explainable, even if the final result was inexcusable. The Rays bought high on Cahill because they were a year or two ahead of schedule on contending. Cahill would proceed to exemplify what happens to hitters upon learning they now have to hit in Tampa:

2022, Cleveland: .292/.344/.462, 7 HR, 25 RBI in 212 PA (119 OPS+, 1.5 WAR)

2022, Tampa Bay: .230/.303/.364, 12 HR, 44 RBI in 416 PA (82 OPS+, 0.8 WAR)

Cahill was eventually traded to Cincinnati after the Rays realized they not only would not give Cahill an extension, but could not afford to give him one. The one bright side in that deal: It brought Tampa catcher Drew Romo.

Back to Waxman: While he was looked at as a viable prospect around the league, he was seen as a fringe prospect internally. His bat had too much swing-and-miss, and his fielding was projected as average, at best. The Rays did not see him as being a viable candidate for the big league roster. So, he was expendable. 

Why wasn’t this done? Why not is threefold. First, the Rays put a high value…maybe too high, but their reasoning ($$$, lack thereof) is understandable, on positional flexibility. Justice has the ability to play both corner outfield spots. However, in the Rays’ system, he would only be a DH. Second, the Rays love Corbin Carroll. They see him as a twin of Elliott Jenkins. 

Third, and this is the kicker…the team highly valued Wilson, who had a fantastic first half of 2023 after developing a cutter. The Rays had a legion of starting pitching prospects known as the Four Aces of the Future, or something. This is what happened:

Dan Hughes: Still with Tampa

Grayson Rodriguez: Traded to Cleveland for Cade Cahill; looks like a top-shelf ace in the making

Navy Shuler: Traded to Seattle for Corbin Carroll; now struggling with Minnesota

Jack Leiter: Traded to Milwaukee (along with Nick Pratto and Alex O’Connell, both of whom have blossomed with the Brewers) for 1B Daniel McCormick and SP Duncan Duimelaar, who has become an All-Star with St. Louis (though that deal brought the Rays Jeffrey LeBlanc and Randy Maley)

When Wilson developed the cutter and began to blossom, the Rays got invested. They have dealt with the struggles and growing pains, including what all of 2024 is. It is that internal value of Wilson, and the insistence of Carroll being in the deal, that shut down this deal.

What happened? Waxman (.301/.371/.521, 23 HR/80 RBI, 149 OPS+, 3.9 WAR) has become an All-Star in his first full season. Again, this is grain-of-salt territory, because history tells us its’ unlikely he would have done this in Tampa. (SSST: He hit 3-12 with a RBI and four K in his only action in Tampa this season.) But it’s likely he would have fared better than McCormick (.226/.321/.346, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 93 OPS+, 0.9 WAR).

Justice, meanwhile is hitting .260/.336/.432, 17/62, with a 116 OPS+ and 1.9 WAR. And he is playing a serviceable right field. He’s performing better overall than Jeremy Sullivan, who the Rays pivoted to as a rental for 2024l (.240/.313/.435, 19 HR/58 RBI, 113 OPS+, 0.7 WAR).

Oh, since we’re at it…the main guy the Rays traded to get Sullivan, Nick Plummer? Yeah, he’s hitting .293/.350/.447, 12 HR/55 RBI, 129 OPS+, 2.0 WAR with San Diego. He was another first-time All-Star this season, and signed an extension for 5/80.1.

Meanwhile, Sullivan will possibly net the Rays a comp pick. Can you see how the Rays’ administration might be frustrated, to have these willing-and-able hitters who are seemingly unwilling or able to hit while wearing a Tampa uniform? Nearly everyone who comes to Tampa–again, Elliott Jenkins notwithstanding–have hit terribly. Triple Crown-winning Alonso Martinez has been putrid in Tampa. Sullivan has been mid, at best. Yet, everyone they trade out turns into an immediate force, it seems.

Anyway, we digress.

Non-Trade #3: SP Carson Kelly from Seattle for whoknowswhat, prospects probably

The Rays have sought Carson Kelly forever. And the Mariners have shut the Rays down every time he came up. Except this time. Trade Deadline Day, an exchange was opened on Kelly. They were debating prospects. It seemed like it was going to happen this time.

Why wasn’t this done? Simple: The Mets had a better offer. Cayden Wallace was better than anyone the Rays would part with in a Kelly deal, even if they parted with 2-3 pieces.

However, this could have, and should have, been done sooner. Kelly was out there for at least a month. The Rays sat back and did nothing for that time, then hemmed and hawed when a deal was discussed. It’s understandable why the Rays were reluctant; Kelly is purely a rental. 

At the same time, when you’re only three games out of the AL East, and sit in the last of the Wild Card slots with a legitimate opportunity to get into the playoffs for the first time since 2019…and you have an opportunity to take a good player from your biggest competition for that Wild Card slot…don’t you just do it? The Rays were juggling all sorts of trades at the deadline, and dropped them all.

What happened? In the end, this probably doesn’t hurt the Rays TOO much. Their fascination with Kelly is more about what they think he could be in Tampa, rather than what he has been this season. That said, when you have the money available for the rest of this season…well, we’ll get to that in a moment.

Non-Trade #4: SP Nate Pearson from Cincinnati for OF Randy Maley maybe

The Rays have also had a fascination with Nate Pearson, who has struggled mightily this season. He’s currently 5-2, 5.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 77 ER+ and -0.3 WAR in 46 innings…just five of those as starts. He’s actually been equally bad as both a starter and reliever, in an equal amount of innings.

The Rays also are in a weird place with Maley. The team seems to have a weird aversion to signing anyone entering their thirties for longer than three years. Maley reportedly wants a five-year deal, though it appears to be reasonable. But the Rays, who may fear their budget more than anything else, considered trading what may be the best defensive centerfielder in the league for a pitcher who can’t seem to pitch his way out of a paper bag.

Why wasn’t this done? The Rays thought better of this, it appears. Maley offers this team value beyond his bat, and it appears they are going to offer him an extension.

Additionally, in the Rays’ review of Pearson…they appear to have him at home already, in the form of Josiah Gray.

What happened? Well, nothing. This depends on whether the Rays are able to get Maley signed at a deal with works for both sides.

Non-Trade #5: SP James Kaprielian from Texas for SP Bryse Wilson and…

The Rays almost traded for Kaprielian last year, when they were searching for an ace. They didn’t pull the trigger, ultimately getting LeBlanc and Dane Grier instead. However, late in the day on Thursday, they reached out to the Rangers about him once more.

Why wasn’t this done? The talks began too late in the day to really get anywhere. So watch this space, probably. The Rays may not buy into Kaprlelian as an ace…but as a #4 guy? Definitely. It goes against everything we just wrote about them wanting to pay guys a lot into their thirties and handcuff themselves…but the belief inside Tampa offices is that Kaprielian’s size, and his control, will age well at The Trop.

What happened? This is really where we question adding this section to each trade. Again, check back in in the offseason.

Overall, this seems like a major missed opportunity. The Rays have depleted their farm system to the point that making moves is difficult, unless it involves one of their bigger players. But that’s besides the point on this issue, because the Rays have something most teams don’t, and something they normally do not:

Money to burn.

They are one of the few teams who could have brought on a contract for this season and next. They had a lot of money to burn for this season, at the very least. They also have $18m coming off of next season’s payroll, though a Maley extension would cut into that.

So, now was the time to strike for Tampa. That they let decision paralysis result in Jeffrey Stone being the only deadline acquisition (albeit in what could be the most underrated trade at the deadline; the Rays used that excess money to give up no prospects for a player they highly coveted in a buy-low situation)…

…that’s the most Tampa thing to happen, probably.