For Rays fans, the history of the last two seasons seems destined to repeat itself.
by Joe Simpson, MLBPro Digest
Fans of the Tampa Bay Rays should really take today’s off-day in and savor it.
Because, friends, it’s all downhill from here.
That’s a ridiculous statement, you may be telling yourself. The Rays enter today at 70-50, having just taken two of three from the Astros, knocking them out of first in the AL West. They sit just three games out of first in the division, and hold a 5.5 game lead on Seattle for the third Wild Card. Heck, they’re just one game out of tying for the top Wild Card slot, thanks to Boston’s recent dip.
Add in that new acquisition, pitcher Jeffrey Stone, has acclimated himself well since arriving from Arizona, as is evidenced by his 0.71 WHIP in his six games since arriving, along with his 999 ERA+. Granted, he has a .167 BABIP since arriving (it was .435 in Arizona), and his 7.7 K/9 is concerning (it was 12.2 with the DBacks). But he’s pitched well, and has given Rays manager Gabe Kapler reason to consider adding him as a sixth starter…or using Jeremy Benson or Jon Roberts in that role and expanding Stone’s bullpen role…should the Rays decide to go that route.
On that front, before we get to the crux of this piece…the Rays are encouraged by the backend of their rotation as of late. And they should. Bryse Wilson just had arguably his best start of the season, holding Baltimore to three hits and a single run over 6.2 innings in Tampa’s 6-1 win over the Orioles. Since his dreadful April and underwhelming May, Wilson has been increasingly better overall.
Needless to say, this is encouraging. The same can be said about Dan Hughes, though to a lesser extent.
Whereas Wilson has consistently improved over the course of the season, Hughes has been better…though still uneven. That said, judging by his FIP and xFIP, one can reasonably draw a conclusion that Hughes has been rather unlucky.
That said, they’re both nearing innings ceilings, meaning the Rays would be wise to go to a six-man rotation…and go to it soon.
Anyway, back to the point of this piece.
The Rays are about to fall off a cliff.
How’s that, you say? The Rays enter today eighth in the entire MLBPro in batting average and OBP. They rank fifth in BABIP. They are second in the AL in steals while seventh in base running. They are the toughest team in the AL to complete a double play on. They’re fifth in walks, inexplicably.
The offense, so maligned in the media (ahem) and, quite honestly, by the team’s administration, is a net positive. Their 104 OPS+ says so. They’re in fifth in WAR.
Garrett DeChambeau has broken out in his first full season (.310/.386/.472, 10 HR, 57 RBI, 145 OPS+, 3.8 WAR). His performance should, in a logical world, garner him some MVP support. The Rays offense was putrid throughout the first third of the season, but DeChambeau’s performance, especially since June 1, has been a major reason why the Rays are in this position at all.
Add in Elliott Jenkins’ resurgence (.703 OPS April-May, .825 OPS since), Drew Romo’s steady bat despite being a first-year regular and being relied upon to handle the pitching staff, which he has done expertly, and you have an offense that has been able to withstand injuries, mainly to SS Bobby Witt Jr. and 2B/DH Taylor Davis, who was the team’s best hitter (.333/.371/.427, 129 OPS+) before missing essentially the last 2.5 months with injuries.
It has also been able to withstand lackluster hitting from key members of the lineup, namely reigning NL MVP Alonso Martinez, who has been abysmal (.233/.282/.416, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 98 OPS+, 1.5 WAR mainly due to fielding) and OF Jeremy Sullivan (.229/.296/.409, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 100 OPS+, 0.2 WAR). With those two as the normal 3-4 hitters this year, it’s even more of an accomplishment that the Rays are where they are in the standings.
(One good bit for Martinez fans or apologists, given what this piece will eventually be about: He is hitting .252/.306/.463 on the road, along with 12 HR and 30 RBI. That’s a 117 OPS+, compared to the .635 OPS/80 OPS+ at the Trop. Sullivan, rather inexplicably, hits better at the Trop. Go figure.)
Add in Corbin Carroll’s underwhelming season (.250/.306/.354, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 89 OPS+, -0.4 WAR) and realize he’s been the #5 hitter for most of the season, throw in Witt’s rough second season and the overall presence of Daniel McCormick…and you realize that this team, outside of DeChambeau, Jenkins, Romo and Randy Maley (.263/.370/.350, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 30/33 SB, 109 OPS+, 2.8 WAR), this offense is simply dreadful.
(When you add in that the Rays hit better at home (.739 OPS) than on the road (.680 OPS)…it just becomes one giant mindscrew.)
The pitching, the backbone of this team, has stabilized after some uneven stretches. They are third in WHIP (1.21, behind LA and Toronto) and oAVG (.233, behind LA and Seattle) They rank at the top in H/9 and BB/9, as well as K/BB. Basically, every pitching stat that matters, the Rays are near the top.
The fielding, while no longer the class of the AL as it was earlier this season, is still top-tier. They are fourth in ZR (22.0) and efficiency (.697), and have committed the third-fewest errors while committing the second-most double plays (103, tied with MIN and SEA, one behind BOS).
The Rays are also the toughest team in the league to run on, with a 25.5% CS mark. This is, in no small part, due to William Contreras’ 31.8% RTO (Runners Thrown Out) mark, which is one of the more surprising things of this year. The team sought to bring back Rule V casualty Jesus Orozco from Oakland, mainly to give the squad a more defensive-minded backup to Romo. But Contreras has been one of the best backup catchers in the league. He deserves a lot of credit.
Okay, so all of that was said to get here. The Rays are a good team. While they stand only a 1.9% chance of gaining the top seed in the AL playoffs, and just a 17.2% chance of winning the division, they have, as of today, a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs. Their remaining Strength of Schedule (rSOS) sits at .509, which is better than both Boston (.521) and Toronto (.541), as well as Minnesota (.520 and Houston (.524). So, one would think they are well-situated for the playoff run ahead.
Except this:
Home Games Remaining: 16
Road Games Remaining: 26
Okay, so what? This Rays’ group has historically been good on the road, right? Well, historically, yes. They were quite good on the road last season, for instance. But that is…well, history.
The 2024 Rays are 24-31 on the road, compared to a league-best 46-19 at home. That home mark is 2.5 games ahead of Boston for best in the AL, for the record. But out of the playoff contenders remaining, well…
Road Records, 2024
Toronto, 38-24
Houston: 35-27
Minnesota: 35-25
LA Angels: 32-25
Boston: 29-29
Kansas City: 29-30
Seattle: 28-30
Tampa: 24-31
It’s not even close, is it? And it gets worse: After this weekend’s series at home against Arizona and their top-five offense, the team goes on the first of their two ten-game road trips.
August 19:28: @OAK (4), @LAD (3), @SEA (3)
September 6-15: @BAL (3), @PHI (3), @CLE (4)
Okay, that’s tough, you may be saying to yourself. But let’s break it down. The first series has two series that are winnable; Oakland has been dreadful and were major sellers this year. They also don’t have any lefties, which is a boon; the Rays are 15-20 against lefties this season. The Dodgers have had an oddly underwhelming ‘24, sitting at 52-69. Sure, there are the Mariners after, but this M’s team has been a mediocre 16-19 since July 1, and their defense ranks in the back third of the AL. The Rays have got this, right?
Well, the Rays could see two lefties in LA, one of them being reigning Cy Young winner Danny Hultzen. While Hultzen has been the poster child for the ‘24 Dodgers (4-8, 4.68, 1.44 WHIP, 86 ERA+), it’s still a matchup that favors the Dodgers.
The Mariners series will feature a Seattle team that is fighting for its season. And, despite the extended run the M’s have had, they did just add Chris Betts to the equation, and still have guys like Francisco Lindor, Armando Cabreras, Ed Palmer, etc. While guys like Manny Machado and George Springer have had awful seasons, they are still quite capable of rising to the task at hand.
In short, this is a series to watch…for all fans, not just fans of these two teams. The Rays are 3-0 against the Mariners so far this season. So it’s possible the Rays will slam the door shut on the Mariners’ playoff hopes with a solid result here.
It’s equally possible the Mariners will find themselves within a game or two of the Rays come August 29.
The second ten-game stretch features a familiar foe in Baltimore, who are just 2-8 against the Rays this season. The Orioles, though, are another team having an underwhelming 2024; they have made the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, and most definitely have the roster to surge right back into things. They did go 15-9 after a 10-19 June, after all.
What’s key here is their schedule leading up to this: @LAD, @COL, vsCHW, off-day. There is a lot of get right in the O’s schedule, especially as the Rays come into town having finished a four-game series against fellow contender Minnesota the night before. All of this points to it being a very bad time to have to go to Baltimore.
Then the Rays travel to Philly for their only series against the Phils this season. The Phillies, and their fanbase, could take out years of frustration regarding the current Rays’ administration, who we are contractually obligated to remind you was the Phillies’ administration for 2012 through parts of 2019.
(Right here, you will find the other contractual obligation to these pieces: The Phillies, under then-GM Jack Dawkins, traded Gary Copeland to Minnesota for Felicio Roxa. Expect the Phillies fans to not bring batteries–that era is long gone–but to bring their vocal vitriol to Citizens Bank Park that weekend.)
The Phils are currently a comfortable 7.5 games up on the Mets; however, they are just three games in the loss column ahead of San Francisco for the #1 seed in the NL. They won’t need any extra motivation for this series.
Then comes Cleveland; there is a bunch of history with the Guardians. Namely, the trade that landed Cleveland SP Grayson Rodriguez, 1B/3B Evan Waxman, CF Alek Thomas, and 2B Nick Gonzales. That’s right: Every major piece to the Cade Cahill trade is a contributing member of a rising Cleveland club right now. (Jean Segua was also a part of the deal, solely to get bad money off of Tampa’s books. It’s reported that Gonzales and/or Waxman was required for Cleveland to take on Segura. That looks to be incredible wasteful spending on the part of previous Cleveland administration, in hindsight.)
Cleveland is 1-2 against Tampa this season. But at home, they are a respectable 30-29. They are also 8-5 so far this month, and could be peaking at the wrong time for Tampa.
Okay, so there’s all that. That’s a lot, right?
It gets worse.
The Rays are off today. Their next off-day is when they come home from Seattle, on August 29th. Their next off-day after that?
Why, that would be when they return home from Cleveland, on September 16th, to gear up for series against Boston and Toronto.
To compare, Boston has off-days on August 22nd, September 5th, and also on the 16th. The Sox do have a weird end-of-season schedule, where they continually yo-yo between home and road trips:
9.2-9.4: @ NYM
9.6-9.8: vs CHW
9.9-9.11: vs BAL
9.12-15: @ NYY
9.17-19: @ TB
9.20-22: vs MIN
9.23-25: @ TOR
9.27-29: vs TB
Toronto finds themselves in a comparable spot to Tampa in the short-term. The Blue Jays are off today; their next off-day will come on September 2nd. But then they have off-days on September 5th, 12th, and 16th.
Both the Sox and Jays end their seasons at home; the Rays go to Detroit, then to Boston for their final six games.
So, there you have it. Can the Rays manage to overcome the hurdles ahead and secure their first playoff berth since 2019? The probabilities point to yes. Recent history–the Rays have swooned hard in mid-late August each of the last two seasons, before making spirited September runs that came about three games too late–and the schedule point to a more stressful road. It is true that these Rays are in a better place, standings-wise, than in each of the last two years. They did hold a lead in the AL East heading into the final two weeks of the 2022 season, but that was a team not ready for prime time.
The lights are about to come on; they’re brighter than they’ve ever been for this Rays core. A lot is about to be defined about what this era of Rays are, and where the organization goes from here. Seal the deal, and it unlocks the next level of contendership. Falter, and there could be a mass exodus.
As with all things Tampa…it won’t be easy. But it will be interesting.