For the Tampa Bay Rays, the 2024 season has been one of expectations nearly unfulfilled and unrealized.
Now?
With the result of two games, the season has become one akin to Cinderella: Unlikely heroes, unlikely results…
…and a clock that has yet to strike midnight.
The Rays went to Kansas City for their best-of-three AL Wild Card series and swept the Royals, their pitiful, worst-of-any-playoff-team road record be damned.
They won both games, 6-1, and 4-3, through some unlikely events. One of those was the MVP of the series, Daniel McCormick. McCormick set the tone in Game 1, taking Kris Bubic deep for at two-run shot off Kris Bubic, as part of a three-run inning. It was part of a 2-for-3 (with a walk), two run, two-RBI day. He followed that up with a run-scoring single to open the Rays’ scoring in Game 2.
Overall, he went 3-for-7, with a double, homer, two runs scored, and three RBI.
The distinction must be a cathartic one for McCormick, acquired by the Rays from Milwaukee last season. He has been much-maligned by the Rays media (ahem), and the fans, in part because the player traded to acquire him, Nick Pratto, was a popular player who went on to post back-to-back 30-homer seasons with Milwaukee, earning an All-Star nod in the process.
McCormick, meanwhile, has been largely average; he posted a 99 OPS+ this season, for instance. However, fans and the media (ahem) need to remember that McCormick was acquired for how he fits into this particular Tampa build; that is, to say, speed and defense. McCormick stole 34/44 bases this season, and ended up as a 1.5 WAR player.
And now, for the second time, McCormick is a playoff series MVP. He was named NL Divisional Series MVP in 2021.
The Rays won G1 with the unlikely starter, Jeffrey Stone, continuing to pitch brilliantly. For the fourth straight start, Stone gave up just one run in his 5+ innings of work. This time, he held a potent Royals offense to just two hits. We’ve said it in this space, and we’ll say it again: Stone, acquired for the MLBPro equivalent of beans–$3m at the trade deadline–has been exactly what the Rays have needed.
GM Jack Dawkins, who chased Stone last season, then stayed patient…this is a credit to him and his staff for identifying a player who fits The Tampa Way.
Manager Gabe Kapler deserves a ton of credit as well. Kapler is a player’s manager, and will stick with his players…almost to a fault. Inserting Stone into the rotation in September, first as a sixth-starter, then as a regular fixture (removing Bryse Wilson) was maybe THE move that put Tampa into the playoffs. Of course, no one play, result, or decision makes or breaks a team’s playoff chances…but there is zero chance the Rays make the playoffs without Stone’s contributions in September.
The Rays won Game 2 doing Rays things. In the fateful top of the eighth of a 3-3 game, Randy Maley hit a one-out single. He then promptly stole second, his second steal of the series. Oddly enough, those were the only Rays steals, or even attempts, in the series.
The pressure Maley put on the Royals’ defense in this case was profound, and perhaps fatal, to the Royals’ fortunes of saving their season for at least another day. Witt singled to left; Maley was running with the hit, causing Mark Baker to charge hard for the ball, in case Maley tried to get home. Baker pulled up early, leaving the ball on the turf.
Maley scored, and the Rays had a lead they would not relinquish.
They would not relinquish it because of another acquisition, reliever JT Ginn. The Rays acquired him, along with IF Andres Gimenez, from Pittsburgh earlier this season. Ginn was lights out for Pittsburgh, as his 1.08 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 shows. He was not that with Tampa, pitching to a 1.34 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. His ERA was a run higher (3.26 vs 2.25).
But down the stretch, Ginn was effective, with a 1.03 WHIP, and a 108 ERA+. The Rays sorely needed it too, with stalwart Jon Roberts being effectively lost for the season in the middle of the month.
When called upon Wednesday night, Ginn pitched 1.2 innings of effective, scoreless ball, though it could have gone the other way. After pitching a scoreless seventh, Ginn hit Daz Cameron to open the eighth. He coaxed a double-play ball out of Tyler Donaldson, only to see Garrett DeChambeau bobble it.
With two on, nobody out, and Kauffman Stadium at a fever pitch…Ginn silenced them, striking out Bernard Blanchard and Gustavo Lopez.
Kapler made two gambles late in the season. Stone was the first. With two outs in the eighth, Kapler made the call to the bullpen, to see if his second gamble would pay off.
He brought in Dan Hughes.
Hughes started 31 games this season, his first full season as a starter. He went 8-8, with a 5.31 ERA. It wasn’t pretty. In September, he was completely terrible, pitching to a 9.35 ERA, and a 1.96 WHIP, over 17.1 innings across four starts.
There were discussions that Hughes would be left off the postseason roster, though both Kapler and Dawkins put that to bed. No matter the confidence Hughes was lacking down the stretch, it would not compare to the ramifications of leaving him off the postseason 26. But it was clear…he would not start.
So, Kapler did what he did last year. He moved Hughes to the pen. All the way to the back, actually.
It was a role Hughes held down the stretch last year, and one he held very well. Kapler, confident Hughes could do the job, had no reservations about it as Hughes approached the mound Wednesday night.
“It’s yours to finish,” said Kapler. “I’m not warming anyone up. Not now, Not next inning. This game is now yours.
“Bring it home.”
Hughes did exactly that; he got Nander De Sedas to fly out to center, ending the threat. Facing the heart of the Royals order–Baker, Francisco Alvarez, and Javier Lopez–in the ninth, Hughes threw eleven pitches.
The result: Two groundball outs, and a fly out to left.
Ballgame. Series.
Now, the Rays are shipping up to Boston to face a most familiar, and most recent, foe. And, if that very recent history has any say on current trends…maybe a very advantageous foe for the Rays. One has to remember: The Rays played the Red Sox six times in the final two weeks of the season…including three in Boston to end the campaign. All of those games came with both teams having something to play for.
The Rays won four, the last of which came on the final day of the regular season. Boston needed that win too; they would have fallen into the Wild Card, had it not been for Toronto losing their last two to Miami.
The 2024 Red Sox have two narratives. One can absolutely look at the prolific Sox offense, led by AL MVP candidate–and maybe frontrunner–Dave Allen. But there’s another narrative at play here:
Boston’s Record Through July 1st: 55-29
Boston’s Record, July 1st-On: 38-40
Boston’s starters have struggled (11th in ERA). They have not been efficient on the basepaths (15th in base running) or defensively (11th in Defensive Efficiency, 10th in Zone Rating). On several levels, the Rays are a tough matchup for the Sox. This was proven in the final two weeks of the season.
Of course, playoff baseball is random. And the Sox have two solid lefties in Drew Lock and Logan Allen; the Rays are 16-25 against southpaws, and Lock just pitched a gem (6 IP, 2 H, 10 K, 1 BB) against the Rays, back on September 27th.
The Rays still won that game, 4-2.
These Rays are doing a lot of things that feel unlikely for this team at this time. Maybe their narrative is changing. By Monday, the narrative may be that we got too far ahead of ourselves. Regardless, for a team in their first go at the playoffs, they have acquitted themselves rather well.
And now, the path for even more success is there for the taking. If the Rays can continue to find contributions from the entire roster…they may just do that, and get themselves into the ALCS for the first time since 2014.
ALDS Prediction: The stars are aligned to take Tampa in this one, aren’t they? The momentum, the recent history between these two teams…it lines up for Tampa to take this series. We think it will be decided in the first two at Fenway. If the Rays can get one of those two games…we actually believe they’ll win in four. The rotation is set up–Jeffery LeBlanc in Game 1, Tyson Oswalt, who has yet to pitch in these playoffs, in Game 2–to get one of them. Oswalt was stupendous in his own right, opposite Lock on 9.27 (6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 6 K), and LeBlanc shut the Sox down on the final day of the regular season (7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 7 K).
HOWEVER…the Rays also developed the knack for blowing games they should win. They didn’t do that against KC. Boston’s penchant for power, though, gives us some pause.
So…we’ll say Tampa goes up 2-1 in this series, but blows Game 4 in epic fashion…and can’t recover the magic for Game 5. Fans should enjoy the run, regardless…but if it goes down this way, there will almost assuredly be many left wanting.
Pick: Boston in 5