Each of the last two seasons, the Cincinnati Reds have had exactly one All-Star representative.
Each of the last two seasons, it’s been the same guy.
The entirety of the rest of Brandon Soleimani’s achievements list reads thusly:
Player of the Week (1), July 2024.
It’s fair to say that, like the titular submarine, the Cincinnati Reds have been going under the radar in recent seasons (I assume that’s what the film is about, anyway). Second place in the division last season, champions this term. One All-Star, total.
Even winning the Home Run title in two consecutive seasons (Castillo: 2021, 2022, missed 40 HRs by one tater in 2023, broke the 40 mark again in 2024) is only good for one appearance in the mid-summer event, if you’re a Red.
15th in team batting WAR and 16th in team pitching WAR will do that to a team.
“It’s not something we think about”, lied GM Jason Toms, to my face, earlier today. “We know who we are. Our fans know. We don’t need to tell the league; we’ll show them instead”.
It would be fair to say however that, plaudits aside, this is not a team with a huge amount of experience. Three of the four playoff starting rotation are rookies or were rookies last year (the other is one of the most experienced active playoff pitchers in the league, but we’ll gloss over that). Whilst rookie (or near-rookie) status is only true for four of their batters, with the clear exception of Buster Posey, elite slugger Rafael Castillo and 2023 World Series Champion Wendell Ayers the rest of the lineup is hardly made up of household names. Even the aforementioned two-time All Star center fielder is rarely talked about in “top 10” lists – arguably amongst National League center fielders he’s struggling for the top 5 (in fact, BNN’s list includes two Marlins players ahead of him – they must have a massive outfield in LoanDepot Park).
It should be no surprise to anyone that this is even more true in the postseason. Among active players, Charles Cutler – venerable Angels catcher – leads the majors in Postseason playing time. Of course, he hasn’t played any ball recently, but technically he’s not retired. Among those who have played recently, the leader is fellow Angel Mike Trout (and then fellow fellow Angel Nomar Mazara in third).
The clear leader in the Cincinnati clubhouse this postseason though is their own venerable catcher, club captain Buster Posey. After ten seasons in San Francisco (and one in Anaheim, naturally) Posey brings a wealth of experience to a young Reds team, having made the postseason in seven of those Giants years (and the one in Anaheim, naturally). In four of those, he progressed to the NLCS (and the ALCS in Anaheim, naturally), has been to the Fall Classic twice (one of them with Anaheim, naturally), and won it once (with- you get the idea). The Reds will need that experience, though. Indeed, only three current Reds hitters have ever swung a bat in the postseason, and Posey laps that field with 339 such plate appearances. Posey ranks fifth among active players in postseason home runs (and none of the players ahead of him are still in the 2024 tournament).
The other two hitters the Reds will be relying on for leadership this fall are Evan White, recently acquired from Seattle, and Wendell Ayers, recently acquired from the Angels. Because if you want postseason experience, Seattle and LA are the places to look. Ayers is hitting .398 in October, with 12 stolen bases. White is hitting .299 with four home runs. Both of those lines are, it must be noted, significant steps up from their 2024 regular season performances but maybe October is just their vibe?
On the other side of the ball, Danny Hultzen leads the way in playoff experience amongst active players. Amongst those still in the 2024 tournament it’s former teammate of his, Justin Hooper. Third on the list is Reds cult favourite Jordan Lyles, though, representing one of only three hurlers on Cincy’s playoff roster who’ve played in October (the others being 39-year-old reliever Hideaki Hirata and one start from Victor Mejia. Blake Snell and Keith Bowman have played too, but both are on the 60-day IL and won’t come off it this year).
When it came to deciding where to deploy this experience, Toms was in no doubt. “When it matters most”, said the Reds boss, himself making his playoff debut. “If we get to game three and things haven’t gone our way and we have to win to stay in, or things have gone our way and a win clinches an NLCS berth? Jordan gets the ball. If that’s game 4, Jordan gets the ball. Game 5, Jordan… you get it. He feels good, we feel good, when we get ourselves into a situation that needs an old head to prevail, he’s our guy”.
The young core is what dragged the Reds to the division title, so they get the prominence at the start of the rotation, this seems fair. Perhaps not wise, but fair.
“Brennan – they’re calling him Postseason Malone now and constantly playing an annoying noise similar to music”, quipped Toms with a smirk. Malone has been quietly outstanding in his rookie season (Brennan, not Post) – quietly, the Cincy way – and so it’s only fair he gets the honours. Daniel Espino and Jeff Reynolds, also having good rookie years, will get games two and three – assuming of course game three isn’t an elimination game one way or the other as previously mentioned.
Cincinnati natives are quiet about Skyline chili because they fear divine retribution for unleashing it upon the world. They’re quiet about their baseball team because they don’t want opponents to hear it coming.
Opening day starter William Walker, however, will have to make do with bullpen appearances, where he’ll rub shoulders with the two pitchers who’ve held the closer role this season – Ben Rowen and Victor Mejia. April feels a lifetime ago. Every playoff team needs a “win it for him” type veteran on the team, and Cincy’s may just be Ben Rowan. Seven years with the Rangers (a two-WAR reliever in his second year) Rowan has been plugging away for years, being quietly competent (the Cincy way). He lead the league in saves in 2018, uncharacteristically loud, but the 2018 Texas Rangers were a mid team that missed the playoffs, so he was loud but nobody was listening. In 2020 he took a tour of Tampa Bay, Houston and Arizona (losing the high leverage spots once he left Tampa), and didn’t play in the majors at all in 2021. A career rennaisance in 2022 with the Astros led to him being signed last off-season to pilot the Reds bullpen. After acquitting himself well in 2023, the Reds bullpen sank this year, and Rowan with it, experiencing the lowest K% (except 2019) and highest BB% of his career. At 35 years old with a year left on his deal, could October be his redemption? The veteran trio will be eager to help the team out and prove that their late season crashes in form are behind them.
Max Meyer, unpredictable but often excellent, will be there too, along with John McMillon, quietly setting the table (can you quietly do anything at 100mph?). Newly-minted closer Stan Lee looks forward to postseason glory (or infamy) too, he’s also been excellent (quietly, despite chants of “Excelsior!” whenever he enters a game) and deserving of his new high-leverage role.
Until he isn’t – such is the life of a closer.
The veteran shouldering all the pressure clearly doesn’t apply to the 9th inning. Unless they’re going to use Lyles there? “Not the plan”, says Toms, “Jordan’s main strength is dependability and length. but you know the saying about plans and contact with the enemy”.
One thing is for sure, this is a team with a young core. An inexperienced team with a few captains trying to marshal them towards glory. Many players have just finished their first (or first full) season in the majors. Some arrived so recently they’re not eligible for the playoffs, cough.
The Reds have tried to add experienced players, with… let’s say mixed results, so Toms has determined that the best way to get good, experienced players is to take good players and give them experience. “It’ll be a learning experience for all of us”, he says, “and whatever happens, we’ll be back next year all the better for it. My message this October has been simple – enjoy it, this is going to be normal soon”.
Act Like You’ve Been There Before
One saving grace for the Reds is that perhaps the only playoff side with less experience of October baseball than they have is their opponent. In terms of postseason PA/IP among their roster Miami ranks as the lowest in both categories, and an 11-3 record in their final 15 games to surge into the playoffs from out of relatively nowhere also makes them arguably the least likely of the eight teams to have made it this far – their playoff odds on 1st September being a mere 18%, per BNN. Reds fans will hope the unexpected nature of the fish’s playoff run will give the Marlins pause. Yeah, tell that to Arizona. It probably just means they’re red hot at exactly the right time.
Cincy, whilst not the least experienced team in terms of playoff innings, are heavily relying on one man – “Jordy Two-Rings” Lyles – for that experience – though lets not forget Hirata also has a ring from 2023. At the other end of the spectrum, Philly and Seattle have lots of experienced arms to call on.
On the hitting front, again Cincy are saved from being one of the least experienced teams by virtue of having one of the most experienced active hitters in Buster Posey. Posey, the club’s captain, has split time behind the plate and at first base this year with roughly league-average results, but behind him there’s very little experience at all. Between Ayers and Posey though, they do have two consecutive World Champions in the dugout.
Miami players, on the other hand, have had more pumpkin spiced lattes in the postseason than they know what to do with, but nobody who has stayed long enough for pumpkin pie. Their most experienced hitter is Joey Gallo with 72 playoff PA – I’d love to be able to call Gallo “instrumental in eliminating his former team Arizona from the playoffs”, it’d be a great story, but with 0.02 WPA across the series I’d be lying.
Seattle and Houston again lead the way here, with Philly flying under the radar a little with the stick, though with plenty of players who’ve tasted the chilly autumnal air at least a little. San Francisco have bought in plenty of experience, with their big free agents leading the way.
But does experience count for anything? I guess we’ll find out.