Historical Context
In MLB Pro, the Cy Young Award has long been a prestigious recognition for pitching excellence, showcasing players who define seasons with their remarkable performances. Historical trends indicate that the award often favors pitchers with a combination of durability, strikeout prowess, and run prevention. For instance, past winners like Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw not only delivered standout ERA and strikeout rates but also consistently logged significant innings, showcasing their ability to be workhorses on the mound. Recent seasons have underscored the importance of advanced metrics, such as FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which evaluates a pitcher’s effectiveness by focusing on events they can control—walks, strikeouts, and home runs. This evolving landscape has led to more sophisticated predictive models, enhancing the accuracy of Cy Young forecasts.
In this context, we now turn to this year’s Cy Young Award projections, informed by advanced predictive models like the Cy Young Points (CYP) and FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP). These models leverage performance metrics to identify the most deserving candidates in both the American and National Leagues.
American League Contenders
Here’s a look at the top 12 Cy Young Award candidates in the American League, sorted by FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP):
| # | Name | Team | IP | W | L | K% | ERA | FIP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Hooper | SEA | 184.2 | 14 | 9 | 30.4 | 2.63 | 2.72 | 111.03 |
| 2 | Aroldis Chapman | TOR | 122.1 | 10 | 1 | 33.5 | 1.62 | 2.26 | 95.14 |
| 3 | Mark Appel | TOR | 175.2 | 11 | 6 | 22.4 | 2.41 | 3.24 | 92.23 |
| 4 | Paul Erickson | LAA | 186 | 12 | 6 | 27.9 | 3.00 | 3.45 | 85.20 |
| 5 | Ryan Weathers | HOU | 171 | 14 | 6 | 24.9 | 2.89 | 3.65 | 77.95 |
| 6 | José Padilla | SEA | 152.2 | 14 | 5 | 28.8 | 3.07 | 3.35 | 75.55 |
| 7 | Jeffery LeBlanc | TBR | 182.1 | 10 | 9 | 27.8 | 3.65 | 3.37 | 70.51 |
| 8 | Sean Gilmartin | TOR | 191.2 | 15 | 7 | 26.1 | 3.90 | 3.66 | 65.95 |
| 9 | Tyson Oswalt | TBR | 188 | 14 | 9 | 20.8 | 3.59 | 3.80 | 63.62 |
| 10 | Kolby Allard | HOU | 175.1 | 15 | 11 | 25.2 | 3.49 | 3.95 | 63.25 |
| 11 | Kenny Funkhouser | KC | 178.2 | 16 | 7 | 21.0 | 3.68 | 3.88 | 59.88 |
| 12 | Grayson Rodriguez | CLE | 189.1 | 10 | 10 | 27.9 | 3.95 | 3.75 | 58.91 |
Justin Hooper leads the American League with a FIP CYP of 111.03, emerging as a key asset for Seattle. “His strikeout rate is impressive, and he’s shown the ability to shut down lineups,” remarked a league insider. “Hooper is not just winning games; he’s dominating them. He’s adjusted well to leading the way without Danny [Hultzen] to help out.”
Aroldis Chapman is noteworthy for his ability to miss bats, boasting a remarkable 33.5% strikeout rate. “Chapman has been a game-changer for us in high-leverage situations,” said a Toronto executive. “His high workload in 2024 paired with his performance, will be be hard to ignore in the Cy Young discussions.”
Mark Appel, with an ERA of 2.41, is also making waves. “Mark has been a consistent performer this season, logging quality innings and keeping us competitive,” shared a veteran scout. “His ability to perform this deep into his career has been impressive.”
National League Contenders
Now, let’s examine the National League’s top 12 Cy Young Award candidates:
| # | Name | Team | IP | W | L | K% | ERA | FIP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collin Hurrell | SF | 182.1 | 15 | 12 | 23.3 | 2.62 | 2.89 | 102.53 |
| 2 | Duncan Duimelaar | STL | 193.1 | 10 | 9 | 24.3 | 2.70 | 3.01 | 99.72 |
| 3 | Cody McCutchen | MIL | 164 | 10 | 5 | 27.3 | 3.07 | 3.01 | 81.65 |
| 4 | Kevin Nicholas | STL | 175.2 | 14 | 7 | 22.3 | 2.97 | 3.55 | 78.29 |
| 5 | Shane McClanahan | SD | 184.2 | 16 | 8 | 25.4 | 3.17 | 3.77 | 77.14 |
| 6 | Nick Lodolo | NYM | 194.1 | 11 | 10 | 27.0 | 3.06 | 3.85 | 76.67 |
| 7 | Brusdar Graterol | COL | 165.2 | 8 | 5 | 24.3 | 3.10 | 3.14 | 75.06 |
| 8 | Adrian Morejon | MIL | 115 | 8 | 4 | 33.9 | 2.66 | 2.44 | 73.32 |
| 9 | Pedro Magana | PHI | 194.2 | 9 | 8 | 27.0 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 71.09 |
| 10 | Nathan Eovaldi | PHI | 159 | 7 | 8 | 21.4 | 3.00 | 3.28 | 68.95 |
| 11 | Julio Urias | SF | 172.1 | 13 | 8 | 20.8 | 3.08 | 3.81 | 68.04 |
| 12 | Mackenzie Gore | NYM | 183 | 9 | 7 | 23.1 | 3.10 | 3.85 | 67.92 |
Collin Hurrell has emerged as a leading candidate in the National League, holding a FIP CYP of 102.53. “Hurrell’s consistency has been key for our rotation,” notes a team official. “His ability to navigate tough lineups speaks volumes about his skill – and from a rookie, it’s remarkable.”
Duncan Duimelaar is another strong contender, showcasing a solid 2.70 ERA. “Duncan’s command and ability to pitch deep into games have made a significant difference for us,” a scout commented. “He’s developed into a reliable ace.”
Shane McClanahan, known for his powerful repertoire, is generating buzz as well. “Shane’s strikeout capability sets him apart,” remarked an analyst. “while things did not go right to the fullest in San Diego, Shane undoubtedly will still be in the conversation for the Cy Young.”
Conclusion
As the MLB Pro season progresses, the race for the Cy Young Award is heating up in both leagues. With a mix of established stars and emerging talents, this year’s contenders are poised to make a lasting impact as the postseason approaches. The combination of historical trends and advanced metrics suggests that the fight for this prestigious accolade will be fiercely contested.
