I was maybe three-fourths into my latest column, detailing the trade that brought Royce Lewis and Nate Pearson to the Tampa Bay Rays last week, when a text came my way:
“Jack’s going for Gill again. Might actually get him this time. Pearson may be the key. Stay tuned.”
Then, a second text:
“No matter what happens with Gill, (Edward) Reith is a Ray. Taylor Davis is the deal.”
The end result of the story that text brought forth…well, that’s how you end up with a column that will never see the light of day.
Jack Dawkins finally got his white whale.
All it cost him: The definition of his legacy.
When Dawkins came back to the GM’s office after a three-year hiatus, he inherited a Tampa organization that was stacked with talent. It was, at that point, a top-three franchise, in terms of minor-league talent. At one point, it was ranked atop the league in that department. It also had more top-200 and top-500 players than anyone in the league.
Atop that stockpile of talent were four pitchers: Dan Hughes, Grayson Rodriguez, Gary Griffith, and Jack Leiter. Dawkins and his staff assessed the talent, and out of that group, identified Hughes as the one who was most valuable. This is, of course, debatable, and hindsight is a hell of a judge. Rodriguez, the first to move (as part of what looks like a legendarily lopsided haul for Cleveland), looks like the top-shelf ace the Rays lack.
Griffith and Leiter, meanwhile, have dealt with injuries and inconsistency in their careers. They still could be viable starters, but the Rays, at least at this stage, can feel better about trading them. (Especially in the case of Griffith, which singularly got them Elliott Jenkins.)
That left Hughes. The shining light. The future ace. The One. He would be the one who would lead the Rays to glory, the one who would get the most mic time at their first parade. The Rays took their time with him; he started just ten games in his rookie year, while coming out of the bullpen for an additional 21 games. In his 78.1 innings, he notched a 1.14 WHIP, and a 105 ERA+. Not a bad start.
Last season, Hughes hit that sophomore wall. He started out well, but finished with mixed results: 8-8, 1.33 WHIP, a severe uptick in strikeouts (9.7 K/9, vs 7.1 in ‘23), but a 76 ERA+. His .345 BABIP was a severe overcorrection from his .242 BABIP the year before. Surely, the compromise to come would mean Hughes would become a solid starter.
Internally, though, the Rays still had some reservations. Would his lack of a fourth pitch hurt him as a starter in the long-term? Was he realistically only a 3rd or 4th starter? That’s still a win for the Rays, who have some issues at the back-end of their rotation. If Hughes could even just lock down the #5 spot (with the presumed addition of Reith…well…
…let’s talk about Reith now. When the Rays picked up Lewis, there became a redundancy in the infield. In the column you’ll never read, I looked at the options for the Rays in their infield. This is what I wrote about Davis:
Davis: This is where concern should start setting in. Davis had a great 2024, albeit one with myriad injuries. That said, while he is a reasonably solid defender, he is not to the caliber of Lewis, Aguilera, or Gimenez. The Rays could shop him around, perhaps for a prospect or a reliever. This is where the need for flexibility with their roster–and the additions of Aguilera and Lewis–really hurt Davis’ chances of staying with this franchise long-term.
Oddly enough, it appears that about the time I was writing this, Jack Dawkins was reaching out to different teams, looking for another starter. If you can’t secure a solid middle-of-the-order bat to replace Alonso Martinez, doubling down on the rotation isn’t the worst backup plan. One team he reached out to, obviously, was Washington, regarding Reith, who was slated to be the Nationals’ ace this season. He started with Davis, who sources say the Nats spoke fondly of when they traded him last year. Dawkins thought they would welcome a reunion; after that, he didn’t know what else it would take.
Washington surprised Dawkins: They would do Davis for Reith, straight up…even offering some financial help if another prospect were added in. That’s how C Ike Irish got included. Reith, who signed a four-year, $50.3m extension last year, does come with some risk for the Rays, in that he’s 29, and has had a drop in velocity recently. He wasn’t overpowering to begin with, so the drop, if it sticks, may cause long-term concern for this club.
That said, for a club who may need a larger contract as a future trade piece…they could do far worse than Reith, who may flourish as a back-end starter, rather than as an ace. He is coming off a bad season in Washington–his 16 losses led the league in 2024–but given the overall cost for a club running on the margins in overall tradable talent, this was a deal they could make.)
So, anyway, with Reith in the rotation, Hughes as a fifth starter looks a lot better.
According to inside sources, right after the principle components of the Reith deal were agreed to, the A’s reached out to Dawkins about Gill. This was odd; it was always Dawkins who initiated discussions on Gill previously, only to be quickly rebuffed. This marked the first time they were approached about Gill, even if it were considered a throwaway text to start.
The A’s reportedly inquired about Dane Grier, which was a nonstarter for Jack…at least to start. Jack Dawkins LOVES Dane Grier, and thinks he has everything necessary to be an ace in this league. That said, with Reith now in the cards, sources say Jack felt like he was now trading from a strength. For Gill, who Jack has long felt is The Guy for this franchise, he would do what he didn’t want to do. He offered Grier.
As it is, the original deal seemed to be bigger, and included Corbin Carroll and Garrett Mitchell, but not Brian Chan. It may have included Josiah Gray and/or Joseph Charles, who will almost assuredly take Chan’s place in the bullpen now. The A’s have long wanted Chan, but they were rebuffed by the Rays at every turn. And here, they were insistent. And so was Jack; Grier and Chan could not be in the deal together.
But what about Hughes? There were some on the coaching staff who felt that, with Pearson in the fold, Hughes could go back to a bullpen role, where he was fantastic. With this understanding, if Jack could trade Hughes for Gill and not lose anyone from his rotation…that would be a massive win for the club, in his view.
The A’s were reportedly nonplussed on Hughes, at least at first. Reportedly, Tyson Oswalt might have been included before Hughes, which would be a big surprise if true. But things started to fall into line when the A’s said it had to be Grier or Hughes.
At this point, Hughes was a dead man walking in Tampa.
The A’s, though, seemed to understand their leverage in all of this. It was Jack Dawkins who publicly professed his love of Brandon Gill. It was Jack Dawkins who repeatedly initiated failed trade talks.
And now, Gill was there, in front of Jack. And the A’s held all the cards.
The Rays also had competition, reportedly in another AL contending team. This team was offering a package the Rays couldn’t, led by multiple top prospects. If the A’s wanted prospects and cost control, the Rays would lose.
But the Rays had one thing no other team had:
Nate Pearson.
According to sources, Pearson’s name was mentioned early in the discussions…but not as a trade target. And the Rays had no intention of moving Pearson, who they had coveted as long as they coveted Gill. The A’s reportedly brought Pearson back up, suggesting that his inclusion would get a deal done. They have also long coveted Pearson, and view him much like the Rays do.
This put Jack in checkmate: You can get what you want, but you’re going to give up more than you want. Oh, and you’re going to pay for all of it. (The Rays are covering all of the salaries going to Oakland this year, as well as pay for Gill’s; this guaranteed Irish going to Washington, just so they could get the $5m in covered salary. That balances out paying for Daniel McCormick playing this season in Oakland, but not the rest.)
Or…you could pass on the guy you have viewed as the True Missing Piece for this roster, because you didn’t want to trade Nate Pearson. (This is no offense meant to Mr. Pearson; he was simply the line drawn in the sand here.)
And that’s how the Rays end up with Brandon Gill, Edward Reith, a razor-thin roster, and questions on how they will fill their fifth rotation spot, as well as their closer role.