Things in Tampa are never easy, are they?
That’s because the Rays never make it easy.
And now, with the way things have gone…would anyone be surprised if, come Monday, the Rays are either staying in Boston, heading to Toronto…or they’re heading home, setting up exit interviews and cleaning out lockers.
For the second time in three games, the Detroit Tigers scored a pair of eighth-inning runs to clip the Rays. On Tuesday, Eloy Jimenez’ two-run shot off Craig Williams–with two outs, mind you–turned a 4-3 lead into a 5-4 loss.
Yesterday, it was Jake Venables, who tagged JT Ginn with a two-run shot in the eighth, giving the Tigers a 4-2 victory.
Here is what the AL landscape looks like, heading into the final weekend of the season, starting with the Mariners:
Seattle (90-69, 2nd WC, +2): On the strength of a 29-20 mark since the end of the trade deadline, a 14-9 mark in September (which was predicted in this space back on August 15th), and a current six-game winning streak–all on the road, including a sweep of the Houston Astros–the Mariners have clinched a Wild Card spot.
Los Angeles Angels (86-73, 2 GB of TB): The Angels are the absolute inverse of the Mariners, having gone 21-30 since the trade deadline, and 10-13 in September. They did have a winning record; their current four-game losing streak, which includes a sweep at the hands of the White Sox, erased that. All of that said…the Angels have the best opportunity to sneak in here. The Texas Rangers (69-90) come to town. That includes a 6-17 record in September. The Angels are 9-1 against Texas this season. Uh oh.
Oh, this is where it needs to be pointed out that the Angels own the tiebreaker over the Rays, due to their 4-3 record against them this year. If they finish the year tied, the Rays lose.
Toronto Blue Jays (92-67, T-1st in AL East): The Blue Jays come into this weekend tied with the Boston Red Sox atop the division, which is of major importance. The winner of the division gets a first-round bye; the loser will host, in all likelihood, either the Angels or Rays. The Jays host the Marlins this weekend, which is also a very important series; the Marlins, at 86-73, are one of the biggest feel-good stories of the season. They are on the cusp of earning their first playoff berth since 2015, and only their third in MLBPro history.
(That they’ve done it without former Rays hurler Hunter Johnson, who was injured on August 30th with an ulnar nerve entrapment, and is out for the rest of the season, is even more amazing. Johnson was 5-3, 3.38 this year, with a 1.06 WHIP.)
Boston Red Sox (92-67, T-1st in AL East): The Sox find themselves with something to play for in the final weekend, which is the worst thing possible for the Rays. That’s because the Sox spend their final three series of the year at Fenway, hosting the Rays. The Sox are playing uneven ball, as their 5-7 record in the last two weeks indicates. But they just took two-of-three in Toronto.
That brings us to the Rays, who come into tonight’s game in Boston at 88-71. The 88 wins matches their win total of 2022, which is the highest since they went 95-67 in 2019, the last time they made the playoffs. That said, having 88 wins at this stage feels like a disappointment. Why?
- The Rays, owners of the league’s best home record, dropped two of three against the Blue Jays last weekend. Yes, Toronto is better than Tampa. They have more experience in those situations. It was still deflating to see the Rays fall short there.
- The Tigers series. Make no mistake: Detroit is a proud organization. Nobody would expect them to roll over here. And yes, baseball is baseball. It can be random. But definitive playoff teams have a tendency to win the series they’re supposed to win. This was a series Tampa had to have…and they dropped the ball. Well, they pitched it and Tigers hit it over the fence.
With the way the Angels have played, the Rays should have this wrapped up by now. They should be using this series against the Red Sox to ready their rotation for the postseason.
Instead, they’re fighting for their playoff lives…and even though they have a two-game lead, it feels like they’re running uphill here. They’re facing a team with everything to play for, while their main competition is facing a team they’ve owned all year, one that also has had a terrible month, and appears to just be going through the motions, playing out the string.
The last time the Rays were in Boston was May 13-16. They lost three of four, with none of the Rays starters pitching particularly well. That includes Tyson Oswalt, who takes the ball tonight, in what is absolutely the biggest Rays game since 2019. Here are the scenarios:
Rays W + Angels L = Rays clinch playoff spot
Rays W + Angels W = Rays clinch Saturday with win or Angels loss
Rays L + Angels L = Rays clinch Saturday with win or Angels loss
Rays L + Angels W = Lead is down to 1, with Angels holding tiebreaker
In Oswalt’s only start against Boston this year, he went 5 ⅓ innings, giving up six hits and four runs, taking his second loss of the year in a 6-1 loss. Oswalt was rolling at this point of the season, too.
Here’s Oswalt heading into his start in Boston.
If you take out his first start against Toronto, his numbers are Cy Young-worthy.
Oswalt has long been considered the Rays’ stopper. Tonight, he’ll get an opportunity to cement that belief. He’s 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA in September; however, he has posted just a 1.06 WHIP, with opponents hitting just .226 against him.
He’ll be opposed by Drew Lock, who has started two games against the Rays this year. In his ten innings, he allowed 11 hits, but walked none, against 13 Ks. That leads to a 1.10 WHIP, a 3.60 ERA, and two no decisions.
Saturday, it’ll be Dan Hughes taking the mound against Juan Davila (as of now). Davila has not pitched well since being acquired by Houston, going 0-2, 5.54 (1.33 WHIP) in 11 starts and 50.1 innings. His ERA+ is 74.
But against the Rays, Davila allowed just a pair of hits, and a pair of runs, over five innings.
Hughes, meanwhile, has been putrid down the stretch, going 0-1, 8.56 in September. He’s yielded a 1.76 WHIP in his 13.2 innings. In his two starts against Boston, he’s yielded a 1.45 WHIP (10 H, 5 BB in 10.1 IP), along with a 5.23 ERA. The result is a 76 ERA+.
It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Rays decide to start Jeremy Benson instead; Benson was very effective as a spot starter earlier this season. Gabe Kapler was non-committal when asked about it Friday morning.
“Dan’s been a little tired down the stretch,” said Kapler. “We’ll see how he’s feeling…but it also depends on how Friday night goes, you know? If we need Bens Friday night…”
When asked if he gave any thought to moving Hughes to the bullpen down the stretch, where he thrived last year, Kapler said no.
“He’s one of our starters,” said Kapler. “You want your starters to not have to worry if they’re going to be yanked around.”
Jeffery LeBlanc starts the season finale, which is the best news for the Rays. He’s 1-1, 2.96 in September, with a 1.17 WHIP, and a 135 ERA+. He and Jeffrey Stone have been locks in the rotation as of late; if it comes down to a final game, the Rays have their best man for the job ready to go.
That said, he was roughed up in Fenway as well, giving up seven hits and five runs over four innings in his only start there.
Of course, the projected starter for Boston, Gerrit Cole, has rounded into form after struggling for much of the season. Cole has pitched to a 0.96 WHIP, and a 128 ERA+, in his 28 September innings. He has been a mixed bag against Tampa, with a 1.18 WHIP, but an 83 ERA+, in his two starts.
His did give up just one hit against the Rays, over 5.1 innings, in his start against them at Fenway.
To sum up: The deck, and recent history, is firmly stacked against the Rays. They’ve fallen apart in each of the last two seasons under similar circumstances. Even though they have their best chance to reach the playoffs this year, every piece of information, every factor available, goes against the Rays here.
To further sum up: It didn’t have to be this way. The Rays are the one who shuffled the deck to this result. If they fail to reach the playoffs this year, there is absolutely nobody to blame but themselves.
It will be curious, though, if they are on the outside looking in come Monday…to see who falls on the sword.