The Tampa Bay Rays did it.
They made it as difficult as possible, and almost suffered arguably one of the most epic collapses in MLBPro history…but the Rays are in the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
It is also the first playoff appearance for Rays GM Jack Dawkins…though that comes with a caveat. Dawkins, one of the original MLBPro GMs, piloted the Phillies in 2012, before stepping down in the first week of the 2013 season, due to health concerns. He returned to the Phils in the final week of the season, one that saw Philly go 91-71, and make the playoffs as a wild card.
The Phils, owners of the second-best record in the NL that season, lost to Washington in the one-game playoff that existed then. Dawkins refuses to lay any claim to that playoff, and perhaps rightfully so.
Dawkins then took the Phils on through part of the 2019 season, where he stepped down once again. He has been making the chief decision for the Rays since the 2021-22 offseason.
So, realistically, this is Dawkins’ first earned playoff appearance. But we digress, as this isn’t about him. Well, it mostly isn’t.
The Rays that Dawkins acquired were well-positioned to contend in the future. They had the league’s best minor league system, which GM John Heinz, who left to take the helm in San Francisco (where he has built an exceptional team and is among the favorites in a crowded GM-of-the-Year race, of which Dawkins deserves a reasonable mention, but nothing more). They had future aces in Dan Hughes, Grayson Rodriguez, Navy Shuler, and Jack Leiter. They had Bobby Witt Jr. They had depth in many places.
But they also had decisions to make. Having a farm system as rich in talent as the Rays had at the time was a blessing and a curse. Not all of those players were going to make it in the bigs. The Rays were going to have to consolidate, and identify which players were going to be the core.
They were also going to have to do it sooner than later, as a surprise contention in 2022 meant the Rays had to make decisions for immediate impact.
Yes, all of this means that the Rays were going to have to make significant trades…and to do this, they were going to rely on the man who traded Gary Copeland for Felicio Roxa.
But, they’re still here for the second season of 2024. They’re here through the skin of their teeth, having to defeat Boston on the final day of the regular season…but they did it.
The rewards of their efforts? A one-way trip to Kansas City. When MLBPro expanded their playoff to include a third Wild Card slot, they also adjusted the first round to the higher seed hosting all three games of the series.
How do we think things will go for the Rays against the Royals? Well, that’s what this is actually about. (But, you’ve met this space, right? You know how long-winded and meandering it can be. And yet, you’re still here. Bless your heart.)
Here are the basics:
Okay, so the Rays went 3-3 against the Royals. But there are several caveats with that. They haven’t seen each other since July 2-4, when the Royals swept the Rays in Kansas City. Saying one series can turn a season around is a bit superfluous in MLBPro terms…but the Royals were struggling at the time, sitting at 42-45. From there, they went 45-30.
The Rays, meanwhile, were 49-35 heading into that series. They would go 41-37 the rest of the way.
Both limped to the finish, with KC going 13-12 in September, the Rays 14-13.
Since this series takes place entirely in KC, we should focus ourselves to what these teams did on the road, and at home. The Rays, of course, have the worst road record of any playoff team (35-46), and it’s not even close. No AL playoff team has less than 40 road wins.
The Royals, meanwhile, went 47-34 at home. That’s middle-of-the-road among playoff teams. The Rays, ironically, have the best home record in the AL, at 55-26.
Here is what the Rays’ offense looks like on the road, sorted by OPS+.
Big surprise: Outside of DeChambeau, the Rays’ MVP this year, and Bobby Witt (134 OPS+)…nobody really hits all that well on the road. But also, nobody, outside of Taylor Davis, hits terribly on the road. Most of their power comes on the road, which is also understandable, given the garbage ballpark the Rays play in 81 times a year.
One thing this doesn’t show…the Rays raked down the stretch.
Outside of Elliott Jenkins and Randy Maley, every regular Ray was above-average at the plate in September. Sullivan and Martinez, in particular, were quite hot, hitting nine homers apiece. Sullivan hit a homer in each of the last four games of the season. Even though both struggled mightily all year, they’ve caught fire at just the right time for Tampa. Being the most seasoned veterans on the roster–Martinez won a World Series with Colorado last year–may give them a bit of an edge in this ALWCS.
Here is their current pitching staff on the road, sorted by WAR.
Of course, the Rays’ best pitcher on the road, Jeffery LeBlanc, likely won’t see the mound this series. (We’ll get to that later.) Dane Grier, who started the season 0-7 despite pitching well in most of those starts, has been effective on the road. So has Tyson Oswalt, to a lesser extent. Both have pitched to a 1.25 WHIP.
Of course, as the Rays have raked in September…their pitching staff has been raked upon.
As a staff, the Rays gave up a .742 OPS in the final month of the season. That was tied with Boston for the highest among AL playoff teams. The Rays gave up 35 homers, highest of any playoff team. This is, in part, due to the 82 walks they served up, second to Boston.
The Royals, by contrast, gave up a .684 OPS, which ranks third behind Seattle’s absurd .599 mark, and Toronto’s .678.
By contrast, here are the Royals at home…offense, then defense.
The Royals are going with their top two starters at home, Kris Bubic and Kenny Funkhouser, in Games 1 and 2. The Rays will counter with Jeffrey Stone and…well, TBD. It’s currently Grier…but it could be Oswalt. The Rays have not made up their mind yet.
One thing working for the Rays here: The Royals went 19-29 against lefties in the regular season. Stone, acquired for cash at the trade deadline by Arizona, was stupendous down the stretch. If you take out Stone’s first start in September, when he was rocked against Minnesota, here are his numbers.
One needs to add in that Stone was used exclusively as a reliever with Arizona. He was acquired with the thought that he could be used as a starter in Tampa; however, he spent all of August in the pen, before being added as a sixth starter in September.
Tampa won all four of his starts. Two of them came against the Phillies, who have a historically great MLBPro offense, and against Boston, one of the best offenses in baseball this season.
There is a thought that, if the Rays wins G1, the Rays go with Oswalt in G2…and then decide between Grier and LeBlanc, on short rest, in G3. If the Rays don’t plan on using LeBlanc, it would be Grier in G2, Oswalt in G3.
If the Rays lose G1, it will almost assuredly be Oswalt in G2.
One thing to note here: Dan Hughes has been moved to the back of the bullpen for this series. He was the team’s closer last year, and he was superb in that role. Hughes had a very rough September, and it is clear that his arm is tired. If he can manage to throw an effective inning or two here, that is a major plus…especially when the team lost stopper Jon Roberts with a week to go in the season, then lost Kevin Clancy on the season’s final day.
To replace Clancy, the team recalled Josiah Gray, who wasn’t terrible in his four September outings–1-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP–but this wasn’t the plan.
The biggest issue for the Rays in this series…is that the Royals don’t actually do anything poorly, outside of hit homers (12th in AL) and draw walks (13th). They have the second-best batting average in the AL, at .256, and the most hits in the AL (1,436). They run well; 5th in steals, 2nd in base running.
The Rays, by contrast to these stats, are fourth in hits allowed, fifth in homers allowed, and seventh in walks. The Rays also run well; they’re second in steals, at 243, and third in base running.
Of course, this draws a reasonable conclusion: The catchers are going to play a major role in this series. Francisco Alvarez, the rookie catcher for KC, threw out 22 runners, at a 23.9% rate. Drew Romo, meanwhile, threw out 23, at 23.5%.
Those don’t seem very high. However, among catchers who spent 1,000 innings behind the plate this season…Alvarez ranked second, while Romo ranked tied for fourth.
The other place where the Royals really stand out here is defense. They ranked third in the AL in defensive efficiency, and second in zone rating. The Rays started out that way, but finished 7th and 5th, respectively. The Royals don’t strike hitters out–they ranked dead last in that–but they don’t typically walk guys, either (6th in the AL). They force contact, and they force contact into their defense.
The Rays’ offense, oddly enough, rank fourth in walks, and sixth in strikeouts. For a team much maligned (in this space) for their offense…they actually finished second in WAR, despite being generally average in everything. If the Rays can work counts and hit pitches they want, this could be a long series for the Royals. If the Royals are able to force the Rays into defensive swings, the series is over.
It should also be noted here: These bullpens don’t exactly strike fear in anybody. The Royals are 10th in the AL in bullpen ERA, while the Rays were 7th. The Rays, though, won’t have Roberts…and even though Hughes is in the back of the pen right now, Brian Chan, an All-Star as a rookie this year, was 2-3, 8.10 in September. This despite a .286 BABIP. He served up five homers since August 1st, after giving up just one to that point.
So, what do we think happens in this series? Well, let’s run it out, shall we? This is totally off-the-cuff, with nothing other than feel, which is at least somewhat based off of the stats we pointed out above.
Game 1: Stone pitches six effective innings. The Rays get multi-hit games by DeChambeau and Witt, and a homer by Martinez, and win, 5-3.
Game 2: The Rays go with Grier, but it doesn’t matter. Funkhouser pitches brilliantly, handcuffing the Rays to three hits, erasing them all via double-play. Gustavo Lopez gets on base four times, and Mark Baker drives him in with a double and a homer. Royals win, 6-1.
Game 3: The Rays go with Oswalt, with LeBlanc in the bullpen. Off a two-run shot by Sullivan, the Rays get an early lead, which they build on with RBI from DeChambeau and Jenkins, to make it 4-0. which Oswalt takes into the seventh. After allowing a second baserunner with one out in the inning, Kapler takes Oswalt out, going to Jeremy Benson instead of Krishawn Holley, Morgan Edison, or JT Ginn. This is considered controversial because it’s a four-run lead, so why would you go to your best reliever at the moment.
Benson promptly gives up a three-run homer to Kody Clemens.
Kapler goes to Ginn, who pitches a scoreless eighth, before turning it over to Hughes for the ninth. Hughes, who has not pitched in relief all year, gets an out, before walking a guy, and giving up a hit. Kapler overreacts, bringing in Chan…who gives up another homer…to Kody Clemens.
Royals walk off the Rays, 6-4…ending their 2024 season in what would absolutely be a dramatic finish.
It would also be the most fitting end to the 2024 Rays’ campaign. They rode in on the horse that brought them, passing up on proven arms at the deadline, settling on only acquiring Stone. They’ll ride out on the horse that brought them…
…then spend the offseason shooting it, over and over again.